ECSSR to hold 12th Annual Energy Conference in Abu Dhabi, UAE

The conference will be held under the auspices of H.H. Gen. Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces and President of the ECSSR. It will take place in the Zayed Bin Sultan Al Nahyan Hall at the ECSSR office complex on November 19-21, 2006.

The conference entitled:
China, India and the United States Competition for Energy Resources

The conference will begin at 9:30 am on Sunday, November 19. On the opening day, following the welcoming remarks of the ECSSR, H.E. Mohamed Bin Dhaen Al Hamli, UAE Minister of Energy, will deliver the keynote speech which will address the overall topic of the Conference and the role of the GCC States in this strategic triangle of future energy demand. Also on the opening day, a speech will be delivered by the representative of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), this will be followed by a speech by H.E. Yusheng Gao, Ambassador of the People's Republic of China to the UAE; and a further speech by H.E. Chandra Mohan Bhandari, the Ambassador of India to the UAE. After the opening speeches there will be a lecture by Dr. Richard Vierbuchen, Vice President, Caspian/Middle East for ExxonMobile Exploration Company, entitled: "The Relationship between Demand Outlook and Supply Potential: A View to 2030."

The conference will last for three days, ending on Tuesday, November 21, and is part of a series of annual energy conferences organized by the Center which have addressed topical issues of importance to policy-makers and relevant analysts around the world. Previous conferences have focused on a variety of issues, including Gulf oil after the Iraq war; the implications of Caspian energy production for the Gulf; the global future of the oil and gas industries in the region; and last year, the importance of using oil wealth to ensure long-term economic security for the countries of the Gulf.

Energy demand has risen considerably in the growing economies of China and India. In the coming decades, these two countries will become increasingly important in the global pursuit of energy resources, and will ultimately rival the energy demand of the United States, which currently represents around one quarter of global demand. In the coming decades the majority of this increase in global demand will be met through the production of conventional oil in the Arabian Gulf region, due to available quantity and technical ease of production. This means that the countries of the Gulf region will play a pivotal role in future global competition for energy security. However, it will also lead to a number of challenges as insecurity and growing environmental concerns encourage increased competition from other energy sources in the coming years.

The 12th ECSSR Annual Energy Conference will bring together a number of experts of a variety of nationalities and professional backgrounds in order to discuss the future course of the Gulf countries in supplying the major energy consumers of the coming decades, and how the triangle of their strategic interests will impact the major producers. The speakers are policy-makers, academics, industry experts and international analysts with broad international experience of the global energy industry and its geopolitical implications.

The conference will cover a variety of topics, including:

• A long-term view of global future demand and supply outlook:
This paper will largely assume that oil, gas and coal will meet around 80% of energy requirements through to 2030 via increased production, mainly in Middle Eastern countries. Although in the short-term much of the production increase will come from non-OPEC sources, by 2030 this situation will have been reversed. Ultimately, a peak in petroleum production will be attributable to factors other than resource limitations.
• Meeting the future energy demands of China, India and the United States:
This panel will assess the long-term strategies of these countries to meet their anticipated future energy requirements. In the cases of China and India, with their large populations and growing economies, much of this strategy relies on gaining access to foreign energy reserves, whilst for the United States the stated strategy involves reducing reliance on overseas oil production.
• Challenges to the Gulf countries in supplying future global demand requirements:
The second panel will discuss the assumption that the majority of future global demand for oil will be met by the Gulf countries. It will also assess what challenges and risks these countries will face in fulfilling those requirements. Furthermore, it will discuss how the Gulf countries will address these future challenges, especially managing market competition.
• Asian cooperation in ensuring energy security
Panel Three will examine moves from competition towards cooperation in East Asian energy security. China and India have often been seen as competitors in international energy markets, but cooperation has been increasing. Although sub-regional cooperation within ASEAN (the Association of South East Asian Nations) is growing, political tensions in East Asia have slowed progress in the development of energy security among the ASEAN members, as well as China, Japan and South Korea.
• Energy security for the large consumers, and their relationship with Gulf countries:
This panel will explore the Gulf's role in the energy security of the large consumer nations, both comparatively in its relationship with the US and Asia, and in terms of ensuring energy security in light of competition from other major producers.
• The growing global interdependence of oil and politics:
With limited global oil supplies, high prices and growing demand, the political implications of energy security have become clear. This panel will address strategic competition between nations, and assess the increasingly politicized roles of national oil companies as energy policies take on a more strategic and geopolitical nature.
• The strategic relationship between the energy consuming giants of the future:
The final panel of the conference will address the current and future strategic and geopolitical relationship between China, India and the United States. This will take into account the impact of future energy security needs, and examine the perspective of each country concerned.

The ECSSR will publish the papers presented at the conference in book format in Arabic and English, making the knowledge and experience presented at the conference available to the broader public, as per the Center's mission to promote greater understanding of important strategic issues amongst the general public of the region. The English version of Gulf Oil and Gas: Ensuring Economic Security will be available at the conference. The book includes research papers presented at the ECSSR 11th Annual Energy conference which took place in September 2005.

In order to make the presentations, the debate and the discussion of the conference as inclusive as possible the 12th ECSSR Annual Energy Conference will be open to the public and free of charge, although prior registration will be required.

The ECSSR thanked all the companies that will be participating in this event as part of their efforts to support community services in the UAE. Those companies are:
ADNOC Group of Companies
Etihad Airways
Union National Bank
International Petroleum Investment Company (IPIC)
Gulf News
Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce and Industry

They encourages participation of representatives of the local, regional and international media, and applauded the cooperation of all those involved in contributing to what will be a successful ECSSR 12th Annual Energy Conference.

The conference should attract a distinguished audience and distinguished media coverage befitting the issues posed by the conference, the significance of its topic and the expertise of the speakers and guests. The conference will provide for a better understanding and a more accurate analysis of the vital issues discussed, in a way that serves the local community and provides an objective base for further discussion of a number of these vital issues of concern and interest that we share with neighboring countries and the world in general.