GCC and India destined to become economic powerhouses

Internationally respected demographic forecaster, Harry S Dent told the Leaders in Dubai Business Forum at the Dubai International Convention Centre, that the United Arab Emirates and other GCC countries could expect a continuing wave of spending for many years to come.

The UAE economy could expect to boom until around 2025 despite oil prices peaking by 2010 at between $100 and $115 a barrel before falling to as low $10 or $11 a barrel.

However, he said that while such a dramatic drop was possible he predicted the oil price would more likely stabilize at around $50.

Dent, who has successfully predicted several major economic events by studying the ageing of populations, said the current economic bubble being experienced in many developed countries would come to an end around 2010 as the baby boomer generations in the United States and Europe reached retirement age.

He said people reached their productivity and spending peaks at about 48.

There was a huge amount of information available in places such as the United States on people's spending patterns and by watching the birth index of countries you could predict their economic future up to five decades ahead.
Contrary to popular belief India rather than China would become the economic powerhouse over the next 50 years and places such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Oman would continue to boom.

He said China's spending wave would peak by 2015 and continue to slow until 2055 when it would actually begin to contract.

By comparison India and Saudi Arabia would continue to grow before peaking around 2065.

The UAE would continue to boom until 2025 as long as immigration continued, but the economy would then level out before booming again until 2065, he said.

By comparison Qatar's spending wave would continue until 2025 before declining, picking up slightly around 2060 and then continuing to fall.

Oman would rise steadily until well after 2060.
Bahrain's spending cycle would reach a peak around 2015, drop sharply until around 2030 and then pick up again to peak around 2045.

Dent said commodity prices also went in cycles and history showed that oil prices were destined to fall around the end of the decade and could go as low as mid 1990s prices.

However, that was not expected to have a major impact on the spending waves in the region.