Notes from Cityscape Dubai 2006

Visiting from New York City, Donald Trump Junior, son of the famous realtor, told delegates that a market top in Dubai was at least three years away but that even then iconic properties would be a hedge against market weakness.

The Trump Organization is working with Nakheel on a 60-storey hotel and residential tower for the centre of The Palm, Jumeirah, due for completion in 2009. The two partners are also exploring cooperation on other Nakheel developments.

It is certainly a bull point that Dubai has secured the approval of the Trump family, whose properties command a premium value just because of the association with this iconic name.

Supply shortage

Tamweel CEO, Adel Al Shirawi provided a detailed analysis of local supply and demand and construction delays to also argue that the Dubai real estate market would remain solid for at least a couple of years. In his view around 30,000 homes would be actually completed in 2007, not even close to the likely demand, leaving both house prices and rentals under pressure.

Indeed, it is true that real estate booms often tend to last a bit longer and to go a little higher than expected. But there were also many of the classic warning signals of a real estate bubble forming at Cityscape Dubai 2006.

First, there were many new developers present and many new projects, a lot of them in the mega project league. Secondly, the necessity to differentiate projects is such that novel ideas are proliferating: revolving residential towers; an apartment block shaped like an iPod, the iPad; and super-tall buildings which are very expensive to construct.

Abu Dhabi rising

Thirdly, Abu Dhabi is emerging as a huge competitor to Dubai with the new $40 billion Al Yas Island from Aldar Properties less than an hour's drive from New Dubai, and adjacent to its $17 billion Al Raha Beach project. It is clear that this and the other mega projects of Abu Dhabi will compete for foreign investors in the near future.

Finally, it was also perhaps a bit surprising to see many of the projects launched during the boom still on display, and still looking for buyers. Such huge schemes do, of course, require a lot of sales and some will have done better than others.

Nonetheless, the precise timing of a correction in this real estate development explosion is impossible, and while actual physical supply remains tight prices will continue to rise in Dubai as Mr. Al Shirawi told the Cityscape conference.

But as he also warned it takes only a one per cent mismatch between supply and demand to turn the market and then the resulting correction will be sharp. So to think of Dubai real estate as balancing on a high-wire might not be a bad analogy, and whether Cityscape Dubai 2007 will be so bullish is a matter of waiting to see.