GRC forecasts economic highs, security lows in the Gulf (page 1 of 7)

The forecasts were made during the GRC's fourth annual conference on January 11 while releasing the findings of the "Gulf Yearbook 2006-2007". The event was attended by a number of officials, intellectuals and business executives from both the Gulf region and outside.

The Gulf Yearbook - the GRC's premier publication - is an annual compendium of analyses on events in the Gulf region during the previous year, with forecasts for the next. The essays by scholars delve into political, diplomatic, economic, security and energy issues related to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, as well as Iran, Iraq and Yemen. The "Gulf Yearbook" will be published in Arabic and English and will be available in print and digital formats by the end of March.

In his opening remarks, the GRC Chairman, Abdulaziz Sager, highlighted important issues that transpired during the last year. "The conference is being held at a time when the Gulf region is passing through a dangerous phase, especially in light of the tragic situation in Iraq, which is akin to a civil war, and holds the potential to disintegrate. There is also the complication of the Iranian nuclear file in light of the faltering diplomatic efforts and the sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council, which may even lead to a military confrontation," he said.

The Gulf Yearbook, Sager added, "discerns and analyzes the new developments in the region, but avoids preconceived judgments in interpreting them."

Political

Elaborating the findings of the Yearbook, Prof. Hasanain Tawfiq of the Zayed University and an Editorial Board Member at the GRC said that the most important step in the political changes being attempted in the GCC countries during 2006 was the Saudi move to establish a legal framework for political succession. It "demonstrated the unity and stability of the royal family, and prevents the possibility of future divisions within the ruling elite."

The role played by the National Assembly in the succession row in Kuwait was highlighted as a demonstration of proactive role that the parliaments are beginning to play in the region. "The same was the case with opposition groups and their relationship with the ruling elites," he said. The strained relationship between the government and opposition MPs in Kuwait over issues relating to electoral constituencies, corruption charges and other policies in the fields of education, press freedom, settlement of bad debts, and external relations were also cited as examples.

In Bahrain too, the opposition and the government witnessed differences regarding naturalization of expatriates, mechanism and guarantees of fair elections, and "Al-Bandar Report". "But the elections and the results thereafter proved that the government had shown great flexibility," Prof. Tawfiq said.

Referring to the UAE's experiment with elections to the Federal National Council and the forthcoming municipal polls in Qatar, the academic said that they set the stage for progress in the region's attempts at political innovations and improvements in issues relating to election campaigns, results, transparency, and role of women.

International Relations

Dr. Christian Koch, Director of International Studies, GRC, said 2006 witnessed a steady deterioration in regional stability: "Despite efforts by the United States to undertake a more realistic assessment of the Iraq situation, Washington did not have any solution that could quell the violence."

Further, Iran's sense of confidence and its willingness to take tough positions "raises fears that the Arab Gulf States could find themselves in a situation that is not of their own making," he added.

Though ties with both Asia and Europe were expanding, 2006 also underlined that in terms of Gulf security, no other international actor would replace the US in the short or medium term.