Why Sheikh Mohammed's new 2015 vision will turn into reality

This sounds impressive but in terms of annual growth this figure actually requires a slightly slower rate of growth than that achieved since the year 2000 plan: 11 per cent, down from 13 per cent.

Reflecting back to the targets set in 2000, His Highness noted: 'In five years we realized economic achievements beyond those which were planned for a 10-year period'. He also pointed to a reduction in the contribution of oil to the economy to around five per cent.

The actual plan laid out to some 2,000 officials, business leaders and academics focused more on a wider cultural and social vision for improvements up until 2015 rather than a detailed explanation of Sheikh Mohammed's economic plan which is well known.

Key economic sectors

But the expansion of Dubai's GDP to the $108 billion envisaged appears entirely realistic in the context of the ongoing development of three key sectors: the free zones, airports and ports; tourism and retail; and real estate.

New figures from Dubai World highlight the success of trade through its eight free zones, which grew by 8.9 per cent in 2006 to $52.7 billion. China is the leading source of imports at $4.9 billion, while Iran is the biggest re-export market at $2.6 billion.

Impressively the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre made a maiden contribution of $1.7 billion, and the new Dubai International Financial Centre added $6.4 million, a figure that should multiply many times over by the year 2015.

The 29 million passengers using the Dubai International Airport last year is testament enough to the success of Dubai in growing its tourism industry. New hotel openings in line for the next couple of years, and the Dubailand theme park project should keep this momentum up.

Realty reality

Meanwhile, on the real estate side Dubai is presently the biggest construction site in the world with projects valued at towards $200 billion in hand, including the world's tallest building and the world's largest shopping mall. On the Dubai Marina site alone more than 100 towers are rising simultaneously.

Could it be that with all this economic expansion under way that the vision of Sheikh Mohammed will again actually understate the success to be achieved by the end of the new plan? It is certainly more than possible, even if the new planning period includes a real estate correction as many experts predict.

However, any outside observer will acknowledge that Dubai has a long track record of investment into projects that appeared very ambitious at the time, but were later proven shrewd investments. The great Jebel Ali Free Zone itself once fell into this category of mega projects that later became an immense asset to Dubai. So expect the best from Dubai and Sheikh Mohammed.