Dubai must watch out for less pleasant superlatives

Dubai's place at the forefront of some of the UAE's most headline-grabbing projects is undeniably impressive. How many countries of any magnitude around the globe have four large-scale offshore development schemes on the go? Yet, Dubai, just one emirate within a relatively small Gulf state, does - with its three 'palms' and The World.

Unsurpassed ambitions

But such ambition is still not enough for this booming desert metropolis and regular users of the city's Sheikh Zayed Road will have watched the Burj Dubai rise ever skywards over the past eighteen months on its way to becoming the world's tallest tower. A recent newspaper report suggested that by 2015 Dubai will contain six 'supertowers' (buildings consisting of at least 100 storeys) more than any other city in the world.

Last year, Sheikh Mohammed himself unveiled Bawadi, an almost unfeasibly huge tourism and hospitality complex to be built out in the desert at a cost of $27bn with 31 hotels, including, almost inevitably, the world's largest hotel, Asia Asia, with 6,500 rooms. But, barely two months ago, the initial investment was doubled to $54bn and now 51 hotels will be built, providing a staggering total of 60,000 hotel rooms. The complex will also contain what has been described as the biggest shopping area in the world, with a mall covering a whopping 40 million square feet.

Fast-growing flyer

Dubai's airline, Emirates, has also not been slow to embrace the city's ferocious appetite for growth and expansion, emboldened perhaps by statistics such as those revealed recently by the Airports Council International which suggest that the Middle East is presently seeing its international traffic grow at three times the global average.

The airline already flies to well over 50 countries but it is determined to keep notching up new destinations with flights to Venice launched just this month and the likes of Newcastle, Toronto and Sao Paolo on the horizon. The carrier also has an eyebrow raising order book of 118 aircraft worth $30bn as it seeks to play its part in making Dubai the leading regional business and tourism hub.

The $4.5bn expansion of Dubai International Airport will almost triple the facility's passenger handling capacity to 70 million passengers a year by 2009 and double its cargo capacity. But this ambitious scheme is in itself dwarfed by the mammoth $33bn Dubai World Central project which will include what is being billed as the world's biggest airport, the $10bn 'JXB', which will be able to handle up to 150 million passengers and 12 million tonnes of cargo a year when complete.

Less impressive statistics

But while Dubai's pace of growth has been relentless and its drive and ambition unfaltering, this has also come at a price. A recent survey by GulfTalent.com found that Dubai is the most congested city in the Middle East, knocking the seemingly permanently grid-locked Cairo into second place. Commuters living in Sharjah and working in Dubai spend, on average, nearly three hours behind the wheel of their cars every day as they negotiate a round-trip which should take little more than an hour. The introduction of the new road toll Salik has brought some promising but as yet inconclusive results with regards to easing congestion.

Dubai's economic growth has out-stripped its ability to provide adequate core infrastructure for its burgeoning workforce. Commuters live in Sharjah of course because Dubai's property values and rents are too steep for many pockets, while the city's roads are jammed because it has yet to develop a suitable public transport system and its much-vaunted metro is still a good two years away from any sort of readiness.

The city's impressive growth rates have also impacted on commercial rents and Dubai presently has the most expensive office space in the entire Middle East and North Africa region. The danger is that companies seeking to keep their overheads to an acceptable level could choose to locate elsewhere in the UAE where rates are less fierce or, if they are considering a regional base, they could bypass the UAE all together.

A question of time?

The re-assuring factor for Dubai is that many of these less impressive superlatives will undoubtedly become inappropriate once more of the supertowers, apartment blocks, residential communities and office blocks come on stream, thus cooling rents and property prices right across the board. From an infrastructure point of view, the many road projects presently being undertaken by the Roads and Transport Authority, coupled with the metro scheme, should also make Dubai an easier place to negotiate in the medium term.

But the big concern for Dubai, a number of years from now, might be whether, in its bid to constantly underline its expansive ambition and drive, it inadvertently managed to over-stretch itself. If so, the city could then find itself with some of the cheapest hotel rooms, most affordable office space and bargain air fares around.