'Next-Gen' Middle East aviation: Landmark report issued

It describes a region which is set to rewrite the world aviation system.

The report offers a comprehensive, factual basis for review of what is generally a little-understood market, along with the Centre's interpretation and outlook on likely directions for the future.

'The report is relatively bullish about the region's prospects. Once the underlying issues, trends and recent growth patterns are considered in greater detail, a picture emerges of a potentially remarkable and long-term sustainable growth path - rather than an excessive, unplanned, over-hyped bubble which is about to burst, as many outside the region (and some within) may believe,'

said Peter Harbison, Executive Chairman of the Centre.

The report contrasts the relative policy conservatism of the longer established aviation administrations with those of the newer, rapidly expanding, Gulf airlines and aviation entities. However, these differences are rapidly being narrowed, as liberalisation and privatisation occur.

But meanwhile, some jurisdictions, notably the emirate of Dubai, have assumed a global hub role, and others, such as Qatar and Abu Dhabi are about to make similar claims.

While there are suggestions that airport and airline expansion in the Gulf will lead to great overcapacity, this overlooks the fact that the fundamentals of the industry are rapidly changing.

The value of the Gulf's near-perfect geographic position as a hub has been enhanced enormously in the past five years by two other main factors:

-Aviation liberalisation, which allows intermediate ports to become valuable crossroad hubs; and
-The introduction of ultra long-haul aircraft, permitting non-stop service to and from almost any point in the world.

'Together these features should in fact help the region's major airlines and airports to be at the forefront of the 'Next Generation ('Next-Gen') Aviation' evolution. In this environment, growth rates can be achieved at levels which were previously impossible', said Mr Harbison.

According to the study, the Middle East region is 'quickly becoming an influential player on the world stage, boxing far above its weight. This is occurring not only because of its headline growth, but because of the way that development is shaping (or re-shaping) the global aviation balance.'