Powerful Pumas spoil the French party

The reverse will be true - RWC 2007 will be almost as predictable as RWC 2003.

No surprises in store

At the Rugby World Cup in 2003 there was not one surprise result amongst the 48 matches. True the semi-finals and Final could have gone either way, but up to that point the results followed form and expectations - and the same will be true this time around.

As with the Cricket World Cup earlier this year the Rugby event will go on for far too long and contain far too many unequal contests. Whilst in the cricket we did see a couple of surprises in the pool stages most of the games followed form and were one-sided. Outcomes in the Rugby World Cup will be even more forecastable with all too many pool games being grotesque mismatches.

There are two rugby worlds - the first comprises the fully professional teams, six in the Northern hemisphere and four in the Southern, whose players all play rugby for a living. The other rugby world has teams with few if any professionals in them and none of which has a chance of beating one of the pro outfits. They are only there to make up the numbers and to permit a format which allows the commercial exploitation of the tournament to drag on for over a month.

The Quarter Final line up

There will only be places for eight of the ten professional teams in the Quarter-Finals and the only uncertainties are whether it will be Scotland or Italy who join New Zealand from Pool C and which two from France, Ireland and Argentina will succeed in Pool D. Although, as we have already seen, the French are as mercurial as ever I expect them to ease through - although they may concede top place in their group to Argentina if the Pumas keep their form and beat the Irish. This Group really is too close to call. The rest is predicable - so my Q/F line up is England v Australia, New Zealand v France, South Africa v Wales and Argentina v Scotland.

The All Blacks are invincible

It has been clear since New Zealand demolished the best of the British Isles in the last Lions tour that Graham Henry's side are overwhelming favourites not just to win the 2007 World Cup but to retain the trophy on their own soil in 2011. I can see no possibility of any other outcome. Italy is a decent side who performed very well in the last Six Nations - but they were ruthlessly brushed aside by the All Blacks in their first game losing 76-14. If my Quarter Final line up prediction is right then the French won't even be on home soil for the match against the Blacks - a bizarre let-down for the hosts who will probably be brushed aside in Cardiff's Millennium Stadium. Australia, South Africa and probably Argentina will win the other Quarter-Finals. I would expect New Zealand to exact revenge for RWC 2003 and comfortably beat Australia in one Semi-Final and the Springboks to ease past the Pumas in the other. So expect a New Zealand v South Africa final in Paris on 19th October, and an All Black triumph.

We should really leave predictions to the clairvoyants!

In sticking my neck out and predicting the outcome of the tournament at this early stage I realise that I am setting myself out to get egg on my face! I claim no clairvoyant powers and there is sufficient uncertainty in the weeks ahead to make forecasting a risky business. Don't bet your savings on my expectations - but the nature of rugby, unlike the round ball football code, is that the better side nearly always wins.

The All Blacks are in a class of their own and unless their whole squad is struck down by a mystery illness the day before a crucial match I can't see them even being stretched in Rugby World Cup 2007. You can make a case for someone other than South Africa to be facing them in the Final - but in reality this tournament is only really about the battle to be runners up, not about who will hold the trophy aloft. I cannot remember an international tournament in any sport where the winner has been so certain from the start. This isn't clairvoyance - it's an acknowledgment that New Zealand's campaign to establish beyond doubt that they rule the rugby world has been as ruthlessly and as meticulously planned as any military campaign -they'll have deserved their triumph.