Dubai on track to hit tourism target

A fleet of 58 A380 superjumbo aircraft is on order, and the first plane may arrive in August. The number of available hotel rooms will rise from 47,000 today to 125,000 by 2015. It is in all ways an epic project, can it succeed?

This will be a key question for the delegates of the Arabian Hotel and Investment Conference being held in the emirate early next month, immediately preceding the Arabian Travel Market, a massive regional trade show for the tourism industry.

The 15 million target has already been shifted back from 2012, and there are some in the industry who think a further slippage is possible. It is a very ambitious target and requires a considerable investment in infrastructure, and not a solely financial one.

It is a question of getting planes into the sky, airport terminals commissioned and hotels open for business without delays in manufacturing or construction programs. And so far the omens have not been good.

A380 delays

The A380 delivery program, for example, is well over a year late. Emirates Airline certainly needs the new aircraft and anybody flying in the region these days will appreciate that planes are running close to capacity.

Construction projects in Dubai are all late because manpower and materials are struggling to keep up with the pace of new project launches. Dubai International Airport was built to handle 25 million passengers and last year over 34 million used the airport.

But the new third terminal is coming up, larger than Heathrow's flagship Terminal 5, and the first aircraft should start flying out of the brand new Maktoum International Airport next year.

Hotel capacity should also finally catch up with demand later this year, according to local hoteliers, with many of last year's delayed hotel launches finally opening their doors. But it is going to be a challenge to open hotels like the 6,000 bedroom Asia-Asia hotel in Dubailand, the biggest in the world, in time to meet the 2015 deadline.

Record hotel occupancy

On the other hand, hotel occupancy in Dubai is running at the highest level in the world - 84% in 2007 and set to grow in 2008 - so a shortage of demand is not likely to be an issue, nor is investment as owning a hotel in Dubai currently is something of a license to print money.

Moreover, the first phase of the $64bn Dubailand theme park will open in December 2010, providing visitors with a reason to stay longer in Dubai.

By transforming itself into a combination of sunshine beach resort, and shopping and entertainment destination - alongside the global hotel brands opening on the ground - Dubai is continuing to focus efforts on tourism development. It is this integrated strategy that makes 15 million visitors a realistic target by 2015. Or thereabouts.

See also:
Watch: Global Tourism meet in Dubai
Listen: Khalid bin Sulayem talks Global Tourism
Project update: $64bn Dubailand gets big, bigger, biggest
Marriott Aims for Bigger Slice of Gulf Tourism Market