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Commissioned by MasterCard Worldwide and conducted bi-annually in select markets in SAMEA, the survey analyses consumers' perceptions of economic conditions over the six months ahead.
The scores, ranging from 0 to 100, are based on responses on five variables: employment, economy, regular income, stock market and quality of life. A score of 50 represents the mid-point. A score above 50 indicates that consumers are optimistic about the economic climate, while a score below 50 signals that consumer are pessimistic about the economic situation. The markets surveyed are Qatar, Egypt, Kuwait, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, India and South Africa.
Indications for Qatar are that consumer sentiment is overall positive and optimistic. The Index reveals that this market has a high level of confidence (88.6). Consumers are very highly optimistic about Employment (98.8), Economy (91.7), Regular Income (94.5) and Quality of Life (94.8). They are however only just somewhat optimistic about the Stock Market (63.0).
On a market basis, Qatar, which was surveyed for the first time, ranked second with an Index score of 88.6. Kuwait remains highly optimistic but a little less so than six month ago (89.4 vs. 93.3). However, it still tops the list with the highest consumer confidence. The UAE sees an increase in confidence with an Index score of 85.4 vs. 78.5 six months ago. India (82.1 vs. 86.6 six months ago) ranked fourth, followed by Saudi Arabia (80.1 vs. 92.2 six months ago), South Africa (74.3 vs. 83.7 six months ago), Egypt (32.3 vs. 65.9 six months ago) and Lebanon (32.0 vs. 38.7 a period ago).
Shaun Rashid, Senior Business Leader, Middle East and Levant, MasterCard Worldwide said:
"We are pleased to announce the MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence for the second half of 2008. The results indicate that consumer confidence across the Gulf States is still going strong despite a decrease in this survey. With the addition of Qatar to this survey, MasterCard continues its commitment to be a source of knowledge for its customers, associates, and merchants as they grow their businesses across the region."
He continued:
"The Index of Consumer Confidence is a credible, tried and tested barometer for historical consumer sentiment trends and analysis. When leveraged as a barometer of consumer sentiment, the Index provides valuable understanding in shifts in consumer sentiments, as well as the identification of market trends over time. With the survey being one of the region's most comprehensive assessments of consumer sentiment, we are confident that the results will continue to deliver comprehensive information that will help both the private and public sectors in their decision making and strategic planning."
The overall confidence across ME&L decreased from 73.6 in the first half of 2008 to 66.4 in the current survey. Since this MasterCard knowledge leadership initiative was introduced in 2004, overall consumer confidence in ME&L has increased steadily from the first score of 66.1 (2004) and its current historical average of 77.2.
The SAMEA Region as a group of markets (70.6) remains fairly optimistic about the next months even though the consumer sentiments are slightly weaker than a period ago (78.4), a year ago (79.3) and its Historical Average (76.4). SAMEA consumers are now less optimistic than a period and a year ago on Employment (73.0 vs. 82.8 six months ago), Economy (71.4 vs. 82.6), Regular Income (77.6 vs. 81.7) and Stock Market (61.8 vs. 78.0). They maybe slightly more upbeat on Quality of Life (69.3 vs. 66.7) but they are less positive than they were a year ago (75.3). They are also less exuberant about the Stock Market, Regular Income and Economy than they had generally been in the past.
Qatar - Index 88.6
Overall, very strong consumer confidence (88.6) prevails that makes this market similar to a Kuwait, an UAE and a Saudi Arabia. Consumers in this market are very highly optimistic about Employment (98.8), Economy (91.7), Regular Income (94.5) and Quality of Life (94.8). They are however, only just somewhat optimistic about the Stock Market (63.0).
Egypt - Index 32.3
Since the record high consumer confidence of a year ago (94.3), consumer confidence in Egypt has declined very significantly six months ago (65.9) and even more so in the current Index ranking (32.3).
Consumers are pessimistic on all five economic factors especially Employment (26.3 vs. 79.2 Period Ago and 94.6 Year Ago); Economy (29.9 vs. 87.2 Period Ago and 97.5 Year Ago); Stock Market (33.0 vs. 79.0 Period Ago and 92.4 Year Ago) and Quality of Life (27.0 vs. 19.5 Period Ago and 90.6 Year Ago). Sentiments on Regular Income (45.2 vs. 64.5 Period Ago vs. 96.5 Year Ago) are less negative but are still slightly pessimistic.
India - Index 82.1
Consumers in India remain rather to very optimistic on all five economic factors (Employment 75.1; Economy 80.9; Regular Income 87.0; Stock Market 79.8 and Quality of Life 87.7). The overall Index score of 82.1, though slightly less optimistic than six months ago (86.6) is well ahead of the Index score one year ago.
Kuwait - Index 89.4
Consumers in Kuwait remain highly optimistic but a little less so than most if not all preceding measurements due to the significant decline in Quality of Life expectations (66.7 vs. 91.0 Period Ago vs. 93.3 Year Ago).
Consumers remain highly optimistic on Employment 98.2; Economy 95.5; Regular Income 94.3 and Stock Market 92.2 but their Quality of Life expectations (66.7) for the next six months have come off significantly from their usual previous highs (91.0 Period Ago; 93.3 Year Ago etc)
Lebanon - Index 32.0
Overall consumer confidence in this market (32.0) currently remains pessimistic and at a similar confidence level of six months ago (38.7) and a year ago (38.6) and is well below the market's historical average (45.5). Consumers are pessimistic on all five economic factors: Employment (26.3), Economy (34.7), Regular Income (27.8), Stock Market (28.5) and Quality of Life (42.6).
Saudi Arabia - Index 80.1
Consumers in Saudi Arabia remain very optimistic about the next six months (80.1) but they are less so now than they were in seven of its eight preceding measurements.
Consumers remain very optimistic on Employment (91.8), Economy (85.0), Regular Income (90.1) and Quality of Life (82.3). However, confidence in Stock Market (51.6 vs. 94.4 Period Ago and 89.8 Year Ago) has dropped precipitously from high optimism.
South Africa - Index 74.3
Overall consumer confidence (74.3) has declined somewhat significantly from six months ago (83.7), a year ago (80.7) and from the market's Historical Average (80.1). Consumers remain highly optimistic on Regular Income (87.0 vs. 89.0 Period Ago vs. 89.3 Year Ago) but their sentiments on the remaining four economic factors have generally waned significantly though still rather positive: Employment 72.9 vs. 81.9 Period Ago vs. 81.2 Year Ago; Economy 70.5 vs. 81.9 vs. 88.2; Stock Market 69.8 vs. 83.0 vs. 66.8 and Quality of Life 71.2 vs. 82.9 vs. 77.9.
United Arab Emirates - Index 85.4
Consumer confidence in this market (85.4) has picked up compared to the result of the last survey (78.5). A significant improvement in consumer sentiments on Employment (95.8 vs. 85.6), Regular Income (90.7 vs. 70.3) and Quality of Life (85.3 vs. 75.9) is evident. However confidence in the Stock Market (65.2 vs. 73.4) has declined even though consumers seem to remain optimistic.
Posted by Eman Hassan
