Watch for Surprises from the Bank of England (page 1 of 2)

DailyFX Fundamentals 07-09-08

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com

What is slapping the US Dollar?

In a week devoid of any significantly market moving data, there has only been one clear factor driving the US dollar - stocks.

The dollar weakened across the board as stocks resumed their sell-off.

Its earnings season and warnings by analysts are slapping both equities and the US dollar.

Stocks are officially in a bear market, having fallen more than 20% since the October highs.

With many companies still set to release earnings, the general fear in the markets is that business conditions were weak in the past two quarters and will continue to remain difficult in the second half of the year.

Liquidation out of US stocks is triggering an overall liquidation out of the US dollars.

Unfortunately the greenback will probably continue to track the Dow for the remainder of the week.

Other than the trade balance and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence report on Friday, there is no market moving data until next week. That will be when the action returns with retail sales, producer and consumer prices scheduled for release.

In the meantime, also keep an eye on crude prices. By now, everyone should realize that oil prices are determining monetary policy.

This is true for the US as well as other central banks around the world. Oil prices rebounded earlier today when Iran reportedly test fired nine missiles in the Persian Gulf and according to the Associated Press, the missiles could reach Israel, Turkey, the Arabian peninsula, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

These geopolitical tensions will probably ease as Iran's test fires prove to be nothing than muscle-flexing.

At that time, oil prices will continue to fall. Speculators are driving the move in oil prices and if the selling exacerbates, these traders will be quick to abandon their long positions.

Yesterday's drop in crude was the largest since 1991, but we could see another $10 drop in oil.

As indicated in these oil charts, between 2005 and 2008 oil prices corrected often and on average, the corrections ranged between 10% and 15%. Therefore oil could drop another $10 and still leave the long-term uptrend intact.

Watch for surprises from the Bank of England

The Bank of England is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged tomorrow at 5% but currency traders should be prepared for any surprises.

Economic data has been very weak with the service, manufacturing and construction sectors contracting at the same time, which is the first in seven years.

The latest piece of bad news in a string of disappointments has the UK economy at risk of falling into a recession.

In the month of May, the visible trade balance narrowed from -GBP 7.527B to -GBP 7.494B. This was worse than the market expected, but the difference was not meaningful enough to impact the British pound.

Instead, the currency actually strengthened against the greenback, which struggled throughout the US trading session.

When the Bank of England leaves monetary policy unchanged, they usually do not release a statement. However they did in 2007, which means that it could happen again.

Meanwhile there is a tiny chance that the BoE could lower interest rates given the recent turn in growth - either way, any surprises would probably be pound bearish.