A slightly revised countdown to war

Last week's debate in the UN Security Council did not go exactly as the United States hoped it would, and huge peace protests around the world reflect an upwelling of popular protest not seen since the Vietnam War, but this is unlikely to derail the US-led campaign for a quick regime change in Iraq.

On the diplomatic front the war party will press for a second UN resolution this week declaring Iraq in material breach, and demanding compliance with previous resolutions and the destruction of its new missiles. A definite timetable for compliance will be set that Russia, China and France are unlikely to oppose.

With 200,000 US military personnel in the Gulf, and 45,000 from the UK, and contributions from a collection of allies, there is no doubt what will happen next. Unless Saddam Hussain goes into exile, his regime will be forcibly deposed and Iraq invaded.

The question then is whether the military campaign is a bloodbath or a walkover. How much will to resist an invader, which certainly sees itself as a liberator, will there be? Why should Iraqis fight in the face of overwhelming odds?

In 1991 Saddam Hussain promised the UN coalition the 'mother of all battles'. What happened was a massacre of retreating Iraqi forces so bloody that US President George Bush decided not to continue to Baghdad and instead to leave Saddam in power.

Now given that the US-led forces have enormously upgraded their military strength and fire-power since 1991, while the Iraqi forces are considerably weaker, it will be surprising if they meet much resistance. Indeed, the troops have all been given instruction in how to receive surrenders in Arabic.

The reality of an Iraq occupied and controlled by the United Nations is thus almost upon us. Nobody knows yet exactly what shape that government will take, but from the precedent of Bosnia we can guess a mixture of civilian and military bureaucracy.

There will doubtless be a timetable for democracy, a new policy for Iraq's energy assets (privatization or state regeneration?) and an opening up of the Iraqi economy with the removal of economic sanctions. That sounds more like a major new business opportunity rather than a bloodbath, and a new start for the long-suffering Iraqi people.

Oil prices will also probably settle back to within the Opec price band of $22 to $28 per barrel. But with Iraq already pumping oil at near capacity since January those who predict that Iraqi oil will flood a post-war oil market are clearly quite wrong. Indeed, it is already doing so.

What will be damaging to regional business interests is an inevitable interruption to order flows and anything linked to the travel trade. Let us hope a bloodless, business-friendly solution emerges to this crisis, but war is always an uncertain business.