No growth for Qatar in 2001

Even the world's fastest growing economy has run out of steam this year. According to Qatar National Bank, Qatar will post almost no change in GDP in 2001 after five years of growing by an average of 15.2% per annum.

At a presentation to the first Gulf Inward Investment Forum in Dubai, senior manager Mohamad Moabi explained that lower oil revenues would offset higher LNG revenues in 2001, bringing economic growth to a standstill.

QNB forecasts total revenues of $11.5 billion in 2001, just fractionally up on $11.4 billion in 2000. Revenues from oil are down from $6.9 billion to $5.6 billion this year, while LNG revenue will climb from $3.9 billion to $4.2 billion.

However, there is better news in 2002 with total revenues resuming their upward march to $12.5 billion. For 2003 and 2004 the forecast is $14.4 billion and $16.2 billion respectively, and these predictions assume that oil is $18 per barrel which is fairly conservative.

Qatar has flourished by developing its oil and gas sectors with massive foreign direct investment and an open door to foreign participation in joint ventures. This sets the tiny state apart from its Gulf neighbours that have largely held themselves aloof from FDI.

Foreign investors can own 100% of companies in virtually all sectors provided that such projects are in line with state development plans and a business-friendly investor and legal system prevails. The response from foreign investors, mainly in the energy sector, has been overwhelming.

Upcoming projects for the next few years total more than $21 billion. The biggest is the $10 billion Dolphin regional gas grid project, second largest is a $3 billion Gas-to-Liquids Plant II with ExxonMobil, and third a $2 billion third and fourth train for RasGas II. Doha International Airport will also be greatly expanded.

So after a brief pause for breath in 2001, Qatar will soon be back leading the pack of the world's fastest growing economies.