The road to ruin (page 1 of 2)

By Karen Thomas in London

Tourism officials from across the Arab world turned out in force at this year's World Travel Market in London, plying their countries' leisure attractions with not just a little bravado under the circumstances. As the death toll mounts in the Occupied Territories and with nothing on offer that might end the clashes between Israeli forces and stone-throwing Palestinian youths any time soon, the burning question for Arab tourism officials is how this will affect their business.
It is a question that few are willing to answer - at least in public. Nevertheless, initial horror and widespread sympathy for the plight of the Palestinians during the latest flare-up is giving way to hard-nosed worries about next year's tourism results.

Tourism in the Middle East has been dogged by the region's enduring - and largely undeserved - reputation for political instability and unrest. Government officials trumpet the fact that regional tourism growth of more than 17 percent in 1999 outstripped world average tourism growth of just 3.2 percent - but Middle East growth comes from a very low base.

Arab governments, almost universally committed to developing tourism, have had to contend with the fact that political unrest in one corner of the Middle East has a domino effect on regional tourism as a whole. The 1986 US bombing of Libya, the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the 1990-91 Gulf War, the 1997 massacre of 58 tourists by Islamic militants in Luxor and the 1998 kidnapping of 16 tourists in Yemen, where four tourists died in a heavy-handed government rescue bid, sparked a flurry of cancellations across the entire Middle East.

Crisis point. Few exhibitors at this year's show were prepared to discuss the likely effect of the crisis in Palestine on their own bookings next year. However, many admitted frankly that they are pessimistic. "During the Gulf War, when Israel threatened to bomb Damascus, we immediately had 3,000 cancellations - and these were not Americans, they were mainly Spanish travellers," says Bashar Kabbani, the sales and marketing director of the Sheraton Damascus. "This time, we are just waiting and hoping. But it is very obvious that events in Palestine will affect us all."

For Palestinian tourism officials, things are already at crisis point. The delegation nearly didn't make it out of the Palestinian-controlled areas to the show. Gaza International Airport is all but closed and Israeli border guards forced the officials leave their cars at the border as they made their way to Tel Aviv. "We had to walk for several kilometers - even the minister - with all our cases and brochures," says Majed Ishaq, the spokesman for Palestine's ministry of tourism and antiquities.

In November, Israeli rockets blasted the Oasis Casino, near Jericho, causing more than $500,000 worth of damage. The luxury hotel complex, in which the Palestinian Authority holds a $60 million equity stake, had become one of the fledgling Palestinian nation's major revenue spinners since it opened two years ago, attracting up to 2,500 gamblers a night, most from Israel where gambling is illegal. Palestinians were barred from the casino.

Spiralling violence since October has forced the Palestinian authorities to bring the Bethlehem 2000 millennium celebrations to an untimely end, cancelling celebrations scheduled to mark the end of Ramadan, the start of Christmas and Easter 2001. Tourism officials have abandoned all hope of matching the last year's 1 million tourists in the year to come, which will almost certainly reverse the rise in Palestinian room occupancy rates from 29 percent in 1997 to 69 percent in 1999.

Palestinians have borne the brunt of the breakdown in relations with Israel, not only in terms of casualties, but also economically.