Syria's GDP to rise by 5.2% in 2009, says IMF

Syria's Gross Domestic Product should rise by 4.2% this year and 5.2% in 2009, according to the International Monetary Fund.

If oil were excluded, GDP would rise by 5.5% this year and next. Oil GDP, meanwhile, is expected to fall by 4.5% this year and rise again by 3.2% in 2009. These estimates were computed on the basis that the price of oil would average $107.25 a barrel in 2008 and $100.5 in 2009.

These IMF findings were released in the bi-annual report of the Washington institution, the World Economic Outlook, which is published in April and October.

In the Middle East and Central Asia, which is covered by the same department at the IMF, GDP growth should stand at 6.5% this year and 6% in 2009, meaning that Syria will be performing below the regional average in these two years.

The estimates provided for 2008, as well the projections for 2009, are based on information available to the IMF through end-September 2008, meaning that the report does not take fully into account the turmoil faced by the financial markets and the evidence of a steep downturn in economic activity in the US and Europe that has emerged in the last few weeks.

"Growth could be lower than forecast in case of a sharper and more protracted slowdown in advanced economies than is envisaged," the report says.

Meanwhile, the IMF expects Syria's crude oil production to stand at 400,000 barrels a day this year and next. This is slightly above current output, which is estimated by the Ministry of Oil at 380,000 bpd.

Syria's nominal GDP should reach $44.5bn this year, from $39bn in 2007, and $45.7bn in 2009. Consumer Price Inflation should reach 8% in 2008 and 7% in 2009.

Exports are projected to grow to $16.8bn this year and $19bn in 2009, while imports should stand at $19.1bn in 2008 and $21.7bn next year.

The report does not provide a specific analysis for Syria, although its outlook on the region as a whole draws a number of findings which are significant for the country.

This includes a possible "correction" in property prices, which could impact "bank portfolios and overall growth of GDP", as well as a recommendation for countries in the region to continue "their fiscal consolidation efforts by phasing out petroleum and food subsidies".