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Thursday, November 12 - 2009

Middle East Aviation Outlook Summit predicts continued long-term sustainable growth

  • United Arab Emirates: Tuesday, March 03 - 2009 at 13:35
  • PRESS RELEASE

Aviation experts, who convened in Abu Dhabi today to discuss the future of the Middle East aviation industry in the still unfolding global economic crisis, were bullish about the region's prospects citing the underlying issues, trends and recent growth patterns as some of the reasons for this outlook.

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  • Hifazat Ahmad, General Manager of Terrapinn Middle East.
    Hifazat Ahmad, General Manager of Terrapinn Middle East.
They believe that the Middle East aviation sector is set to soar.

The 2nd Middle East Aviation Outlook Summit organized by Terrapinn, a leading global business media company, unveiled results of the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) report which declared that the region "will be growing while others are stagnating."

"The Middle East is poised to shine," according to CAPA report.

Hifazat Ahmad, General Manager of Terrapinn Middle East, said:
"What we heard today from global and regional aviation industry leaders was candid and bold. The good news is it was also positive. The reasons for rapid growth in the aviation sector are somewhat complex, but almost all agreed that the overall future outlook is upbeat. This youthful region is to shape the growth of the future of aviation."


Peter Harbison, Chairman of CAPA who will chair the Summit of the conference, said, "A picture emerges of a potentially remarkable and long-term sustainable growth path in the Middle East, rather than an excessive, unplanned, over-hyped bubble which is about to burst, as many outside the region, and some within, may believe."

"Whatever happens in the remainder of the world, there are still strong indications that the region will continue to support strong levels of traffic growth. This applies both to long-haul, hub services and short-haul, point to point operations," he observed.

The rapid growth in the aviation sector is expected to continue and will be supported by the region's underlying economic growth and regional commercial development. The strategic geographic location, adoption of new technology and regulatory issues are some of the other reasons for this outlook.

"A vibrant aviation sector is a key factor in the diversification of Middle East economies and plays a key enabling role for many other sectors, including the growing financial services and tourism industries."

Because of the importance aviation assumes in several nations' economic diversification strategies, several of the region's players have been undertaking large-scale expansion, injecting billions of dollars into fleet renewal, airport augmentation and tourism-related infrastructure projects.

Peter Harbison remarked, "The region's geographic situation is merely good fortune; but it is by adding the other two ingredients that a powerful recipe for growth is created. With new generation aircraft technology, Arab airlines now have the ability to access any point in the world non-stop. Combined with the simultaneous easing of market access, this makes one-stop global travel increasingly possible."

He added, "There is however an additional but vital catalyst which converts the potential of these ingredients into immediate growth: sophisticated management of the aviation and tourism supply chain. Some countries in the region have elevated that art to a new level, greatly assisting the process of expansion. In brief, the region is fast becoming the 'Next-Gen aviation centre of the world'."

He explained that as the world, led by the US and the UK, is slumping into economic decline, it would be wholly unrealistic to believe that the United Arab Emirates, along with every other country, will be immune from the global credit crunch and the economic downturn. However, the region and the Gulf in particular have shown a resilience that is absent from many other markets. Furthermore, there are indications that the premium sector has held up much better than in other parts of the world and its market share is soaring. "The region is not immune to financial constraints, but well supported," he noted.

He said, "The timing of this downturn probably comes at an almost ideal time for the expansion of some of the leading airlines in the region, as they consolidate their positions in a global order."

"A continuing expansion of each of the Gulf carriers through negative economic conditions, while many competitors cut back, has both short and long term implications. But, as the world economy starts to pick up, the advantages of having maintained a strenuous delivery schedule will start to show through. The region's airlines will then possess younger and more fuel efficient fleets, positioning them well to capitalise as markets resume growth," he concluded.

The Aviation Outlook Summit event, which continues to 5 March at Beach Rotana Hotel and Towers in Abu Dhabi, includes participants from the world's top airlines including Etihad, Oman Air, Turkish Airlines, Wataniya, Royal Jet, Gulf Air, Air Arabia, Sama, Jazeera Airways, Airblue, Kingfisher, Air Asia X, Kuwait Airways and Mihinlanka Airlines and Virgin Blue. It also features Leaders from the Middle East's foremost airports authorities including Abu Dhabi Airports Company (ADAC,) Oman Airports Management Company and Cairo Airport Company.
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Notes and media contacts

Facts & Figures:

Highlights from the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) report, "Middle East Aviation Outlook 2009: Poised to Shine".

• In November 2008, the share of global airline premium revenue passing to and through the Middle East grew to a remarkable 12%, up 50% since the onset of the global economic slowdown. This would have been unthinkable ten years ago.

• Routes linked to the Middle East now account slightly over 11% of premium traffic numbers. Prior to the onset of the global economic crisis, the Middle East region accounted for 8% of worldwide revenue and just under 9% of traffic. Notably too, the change, where the premium revenue share has overtaken the traffic share, implies that Middle East airlines are also enjoying better yields than their rivals in this market.

• Even as other regions have been suffering steep downturns in premium travel, the Middle East levels have held up relatively well. These must inevitably decline overall, but the signs are that they will be much more resilient than other route groups.

• Middle East airlines are taking delivery of 21% of the world's widebodies this year (50 aircraft in total) and 13% of the total in 2010 (13%). These proportions could increase if the loss-making Asian and European airlines defer or cancel some of their orders. The Middle East carriers, with their strong financial backing and more resilient traffic, are expected to be less inclined to cancel their orders.

• They will be growing while others are stagnating There is also a lot more capacity coming on line in the next two years. A disproportionately large number of the long haul orders, which Boeing and Airbus have on their books, are from Gulf States. Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways and several other operators lead the global list and, according to current reports, they have no intention of slowing the delivery schedule.

• There is only a handful of older aircraft in their fleets, some of which may see early retirement if conditions continue to decline. But otherwise each anticipates continuing annual capacity growth of well above 10%. Emirates alone will receive nine or ten more A380s in 2009.

• Meanwhile, most European and Asian network airlines will either reduce capacity or remain around current levels.

• In total, Middle East airlines will add 114 aircraft to their fleets in 2009 (8% of worldwide deliveries) and 122 in 2010 (9% of the total).

• Looking only at widebody aircraft, which are predominantly operated on long-haul international routes, Middle East airlines are taking delivery of 21% of the world's widebodies this year (50 aircraft in total) and 13% of the total in 2010.

• The Middle East carriers also account for 6% of worldwide narrowbody deliveries this year and 7% in 2010, presaging a surge in intra-Middle East flying in what is still an immature market.

• The long haul expansion of the UAE and other Gulf carriers is well established now, but there is a massive and largely untapped market within the region itself.

• Four factors are now accelerating the expansion of short haul travel within the Middle East:

1. The growing pace of liberalisation among previously conservative Middle East states;
2. The surge of new entry and capacity expansion by locally based LCCs;
3. Growing enfranchisement of the massive under-25 demographic segment; and
4. An increasing price-consciousness among the new growth markets.

• By 2025, commercial airlines are expected to operate approximately 1.4 million flights p/a to/from the UAE. The country's aggressive carriers have some of the largest order books in the world, with orders and options for more than 500 aircraft shared between Emirates (225 orders, 20 options), Eithad Airways (121 orders, 104 options/rights) and Air Arabia (44 orders).

For more information, please contact:

Zahra Bissat
Account Executive
Borouj Consulting
PO Box 213323
Dubai, UAE
T: +9714 3403005

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