Consumer confidence is up in the UAE, for first time in a year, latest Bayt.com and YouGov index reveals

These are the UAE results from the latest Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - which has moved up by 15.9 index points as compared to the previous wave in Feb 09.

This was the largest improvement amongst all the countries surveyed. The Consumer Confidence Index is a quarterly survey conducted by the Middle East's number one job site - Bayt.com in and research specialists YouGov.

While respondents remain largely pessimistic about their current financial position, the country's economy and whether or not it's a good time to buy goods, optimism reigns for the future, with 44% believing business conditions - and 37% believing their country's economy - will be better in a year's time.

On the whole, consumer confidence improved across all of the surveyed countries with the exception of Algeria; with the top two countries being UAE followed by Kuwait at 14.2 points. Saudi Arabia marked an improvement of 6.4 points and Qatar of 3.9 points.

Around the Levant, Syria and Lebanon both reported improvements of 8.0 and 3.3 points respectively - following Lebanon's record of continually improving consumer confidence. Despite being the only country in the last wave of the survey (February/ March) to show an improvement on its index, in this wave, Algeria was the only country to move down - by 2.3 index points.

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a measure of consumer expectations and satisfaction of various elements of the economy including inflation, job opportunities and the cost of living.

"Recent news reports have reported relative stability- if not improvements- in some sectors of both the local and global economy. News of this stability - and presumably improvements on a grass roots level in most countries in the Middle East, are starting to impact professionals, which therefore accounts for the improvement we are seeing in the CCI," explained Amer Zureikat, Bayt.com's Regional Manager.

The CCI asks the respondents' regarding their personal financial situation, and whether - since 12 months ago - they feel that they are better, or worse off. One fifth of the UAE's respondents felt they were better off now than last year, while 32% stated their situation was the same and 41% felt it was worse.

Across the region, the figures stayed in line with the previous wave - once again a quarter of respondents felt they were better off; 34% felt they were worse off, and 33% felt no change in their financial position.

Within the GCC, KSA (28%), Qatar and Bahrain (27% each) recorded the most significant improvements in the region vis-a-vis personal financial position - with respondents stating that they were better off. By contrast, Jordan's respondents were most negatively hit in terms of their financial position, with 44% of all respondents stating that their financial situation had gotten worse over the past year.

Another indicator for measuring consumer confidence is assessing consumer expectations and the level of optimism towards the future.

Similarly to overall consumer confidence, all of the countries felt an improvement, with the exception of Algeria. Unlike the last wave, when the UAE dropped by 12.3 points; results showed that the UAE moved up the index by a very positive 17.7 points - the highest of all the surveyed countries. Following close behind - and again marking a significant improvement on the last wave was Kuwait - which moved up the index by 17.3 points.

Around the rest of the Gulf, KSA and Qatar both enjoyed sizable improvements vis-a-vis consumer expectations following from previous drops - moving up by 7.9 and 6.9 points respectively, contrasted to Algeria's drop of 2.2 points.

However, the majority of respondents across the region feel it is not a good time to buy durable goods such as televisions, refrigerators or property, (43%), compared to 20% who do feel it is a good time to buy such goods.

"The greater degree of optimism we are seeing amongst consumers, is in line with reports around the globe that the 'green shoots' of recovery are being felt, however people remain cautious about their own spending and this trend may remain for the long-term", says Nassim Ghrayeb, CEO, YouGov.

In terms of respondents' optimism for the future - overall, 44% believed that their financial position would be better in a year's time; with just 9% of respondents believing that it will be worse. In the UAE, 39% of respondents believe their personal finances will get better, compared to 15% that believe they may get worse, and 22% believing they will stay the same.

What's more, more than a third of the region's respondents - 37% - believed that their country's economy would improve in a year's time, compared to the 23% who stated that it would worsen. In the UAE, positivity about improvements exceeded the average, with 41% believing things would get better, as opposed to the 23% who believe it will stay the same, and the 21% who believe it will get worse.

Most positive about economic improvements in their country were those respondents in Kuwait with 45% agreeing that things would get better in a year - closely followed by Saudi Arabia's respondents at 44%.

Feelings across the region varied when it came to the propensity to consume. Despite a previous improvement, Lebanon witnessed an index drop of 4.7 points in the current wave, closely followed by Algeria and Qatar, which dropped 3.9 points each.

True to form in the current survey, the UAE moved up the index the highest - witnessing a jump of 12.6 index points. With the exception of Qatar, the gulf showed positive improvements in its propensity to consume, with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia both moving up; 7.9 and 4.4 points respectively.

"Our quarterly Consumer Confidence Index provides us with very strong indications on the current feelings, concerns and attitudes that underlie the current market. What we aim to achieve through such research is to empower businesses, HR professionals and in fact any other stakeholders in business or industry - with thematic, up-to-the-minute and relevant insights into how those in the heart of the labour market are thinking; so they can then use this insight for either adapting their businesses or adopting new strategies for the future - in line with the needs of the market,"

said Ghrayeb.

How people feel about the local job market and their attitudes towards availability of jobs and salary satisfaction is measured in the employee confidence index (ECI) - a significant contributor to the CCI.

In the current wave, and in a complete reversal from the previous survey's results, Lebanon this time around was the only country to show a drop (although only marginal) in employee confidence - by 0.2 points.

In this index, Kuwait showed the biggest improvement of 11.1 points, followed by the UAE which moved up 8.1 index points. Syria enjoyed an improvement of 3.1 index points, and Egypt of 3.0 points. The data suggests that there is universal optimism which states labour markets across the Middle East are finally picking up.

"As a direct consequence of the global economic downturn, respondents feel that salary increases haven't kept pace with the cost of living, with 63% saying that increases are not in line. However, working professionals across the region have high hopes towards the future with an overwhelming 44% firmly believing their financial positions will be better in a year's time", stated Zureikat.

The current wave registered a significant improvement in terms of whether or not respondents felt more jobs would be available in a year's time. Previously, 41% of respondents believed work availability would be worse, compared to just 33% in the current wave.

Most optimistic about the future availability of jobs at 35% was Kuwait, closely and remarkably followed by the UAE which showed a significant improvement since the last wave - previously just 21% believed job availability would be better, compared to the 34% who were now optimistic for better job availability next year.

"The doom and gloom of the last three quarters has gripped the region, but now, there are signs that the global recession and its effects on the region might finally be starting to ease. Conducting surveys such as the Consumer Confidence Index shows a number of telling indicators - including how people really feel about their current finances and how positive they feel about the coming year. Taking this kind of data and actually using it wisely to develop sustainable strategies for business success, may well define the difference between those companies that achieve lasting success, and those that are likely to fail," concluded Zureikat.

Data for the May/June 2009 Consumer Confidence Index Survey was collected online between the period of 29th April and 30th May 2009 with 11,458 respondents from across the UAE, KSA, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria and Pakistan. Males and females aged over 18 years old, of all nationalities, were included in the survey.