Register | Forgot password?
Switch to Arabic
Sunday, November 29 - 2009

Standard and Poor's: Middle East and North Africa markets heading for a correction, say fund managers

  • United Arab Emirates: Monday, August 10 - 2009 at 17:10
  • PRESS RELEASE

Fund managers investing in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are united in expecting a correction, according to the latest update on the sector from Standard and Poor's Fund Services.

Article continues below
 
An example is Shakeel Sarwar, head of asset management at SICO, managers of the S&P AA rated SICO Gulf Equity Fund, who began the year with more than 50% in cash.

Sarwar told S&P Fund Services his active management of cash during the second quarter reflected his lack of conviction in the sustainability of the sharp rally in GCC markets which began at the end of February.

"In Sarwar's view, the markets have risen too far, too fast and could experience a correction," said S&P Fund Services lead analyst Alison Cratchley, highlighting a similar but more specific forecast from the team at The National Investor.

They believe that the seasonal slowdown during Q3, coupled with a decline in global equity markets, could trigger a major correction in regional equity prices.

Meanwhile at Mashreq, Ibrahim Masood is concerned about low liquidity and the possibility of a sell-off in the US market. He points out that so far this year the correlation of returns between the US and the MENA region has been extremely high.

"The managers we interviewed showed considerable agreement about countries and sectors," said S&P Fund Services' Cratchley, explaining that favoured markets included Saudi Arabia, boosted by government spending, and Qatar, despite its deteriorating growth prospects. Kuwait is generally avoided as it is thought to be dominated by investment and real estate companies.

Favoured sectors for the S&P AA rated Makaseb Arab Tigers Fund are food, beverages and tobacco, while the Makaseb Emirates Equity Fund and Makaseb Qatar Equity Fund favour telecommunications and utilities.

Shakeel Sarwar at SICO likes telecoms, consumer goods and defensive industrials but is cautious on financials and the Dubai real estate sector.

"Relative to other emerging markets, the MENA region significantly underperformed in the six months to the end of June 2009,"
said S&P Fund Services' Cratchley, pointing to the 12.7% rise in the MSCI Arabia index compared with a 37.8% rise in the S&P/IFCI Composite index.

"This probably reflects investors' perception that the MENA region is highly leveraged to a US recovery due to its dependence on oil revenues, whereas other emerging markets are supported by robust domestic demand," she said.
Also consider reading:
Log in to request more information from Standard & Poor's

Notes and media contacts

Note:
Standard & Poor's, a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies, is the world's foremost provider of independent credit ratings, indices, risk evaluation, investment research and data. With offices in 23 countries and markets, Standard & Poor's is an essential part of the world's financial infrastructure and has played a leading role for more than 140 years in providing investors with the independent benchmarks they need to feel more confident about their investment and financial decisions.

About Standard & Poor's Fund Services:
Standard & Poor's Fund Services is one of the world's leading providers of qualitative, forward-looking fund management research reports. Our fund research reports are based on in-depth analysis of the funds investment culture, due diligence approach, operational risk assessment, team's experience, skill, flair and stability, fund specifics and other factors. The research is also based on an evaluation of qualitative (management, investment process and organisation) and quantitative (historic performance, portfolio construction and volatility) factors, which may contribute to long-term performance.

We rate funds into the following three categories of AAA (highest) or AA (very high) or A (high) to indicate three different standards of quality based on the fund's investment process, team's experience, control of risks and consistency of performance relative to its own investment objectives.

Our fund management reports are based mainly on public information. We don't audit the information and may rely on unaudited information when we prepare the reports which are for institutional use only. A report is not investment advice, a financial promotion, or a recommendation to purchase, hold, sell or trade any security. A report should not be relied on when making an investment decision as the report is for information purposes only and not tailored to a specific investor. Past fund performance is no guarantee of future performance and we accept no responsibility if, in reliance on a report, you act or fail to act in a particular way.

We are paid for our fund management reports normally by the fund issuer. Our fees are based upon the analysis and time involved in the research process and are not conditional on awarding a fund rating. Fund companies select the funds they want us to rate and may elect not to have published the rating they are subsequently awarded.

Standard & Poor's and its affiliates provide a wide range of services to, or relating to, many organizations, including issuers of securities, investment advisers, broker-dealers, investment banks, other financial institutions and financial intermediaries, and accordingly may receive fees or other economic benefits from those organizations, including organizations whose securities or services they may recommend, rate, include in model portfolios, evaluate or otherwise address.

Contact:
Alison Cratchley
T: +44 20 7176 8426

Disclaimer:

Articles in this section are primarily provided directly by the companies appearing or PR agencies which are solely responsible for the content. The companies concerned may use the above content on their respective web sites provided they link back to http://www.ameinfo.com

Any opinions, advice, statements, offers or other information expressed in this section of the AMEinfo.com Web site are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of AME Info FZ LLC / Emap Limited. AME Info FZ LLC / Emap Limited is not responsible or liable for the content, accuracy or reliability of any material, advice, opinion or statement in this section of the AMEinfo.com Web site.

For details about submitting your stories, please read the guide - all content published is subject to our terms and conditions