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Bumper oil revenues in the first quarter of 2003 will send Saudi Arabia's real GDP powering 6% ahead this year, forecasts Saudi American Bank chief economist Brad Bourland in his latest bulletin, an upwards revision from 3.8% at the start of the year.
Total oil revenue for the kingdom averaged $7.7 billion a month in the first quarter compared with a monthly average of $5.5 billion and $5.3 billion per month in 2002 and 2001 respectively.
'But offsetting this powerful oil sector performance was a general slowdown in private sector business activity,' notes the bulletin. 'Hardest hit were travel related businesses such as airlines, hotels and travel agencies. More broadly, auto sales and general retail activity were affected'.
Samba forecasts that Saudi oil production will average 8.5 million barrels per day in 2003, meaning a 13 per cent increase in real output in the oil sector over 2002.
This will mean a reduced budget deficit for 2003 of $3.15 billion compared with the budget forecast of $10.5 billion. The country's trade position will also be healthy again, with Samba predicting a $13 billion current account surplus, the kingdom's seventh surplus in the past eight years.
However, private sector growth will fall from 3% to 4% due to the impact of the war in Iraq on business.
Saudi growth set to hit 6% this year
Small wonder that the GCC economies are booming with oil prices high, and production levels at near capacity. This will be Saudi Arabia's best year for economic growth in two decades.
Saudi Arabia: Monday, May 05 - 2003 at 15:44
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Peter J. CooperMonday, May 05 - 2003 at 15:44 UAE local time (GMT+4)
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