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Sunday, November 22 - 2009

Linda Mahoney

  • United Arab Emirates: Tuesday, May 13 - 2003 at 11:02

Better Homes is one of Dubai's leading real estate companies and after two decades in the Gulf its managing director and Gulf News columnist Linda Mahoney is one of the best judges of the local market.

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Yet even she would admit to often being perplexed and confused by the sudden explosion of freehold property ownership for foreigners in Dubai over the past year.

'Last summer I had just arrived for my holiday in Shanghai when a colleague rang to tell me about the queues for villas in the Meadows,' she recalls. 'That was 12 months ago, and since then we seem to have had just one huge real estate project after another'.

So where is the Dubai market now? What is the current state of affairs in the local real estate market?

'Well, we have seen some post-war pick up in enquires. But now the delay in the freehold law is holding buyers back. It is frustrating they ask, 'can I register my property?' and at the moment the true answer is that you can not, but the perception is you should be able to do so soon.

'The market we are talking about here is the investor market. People who want to buy three, four, five or more properties for investment reasons, not the expatriate buying to save on rent. These investors will either re-sell or lease-on to expatriates, and typically come from the GCC community.

'And this is the market that Dubai has to tap to take up its developments, not just a few thousand long-term expatriates who want to save on their rent. They just would not be a large enough market for the numerous towers that are being built in the Dubai Marina, for example, over the next two years.'

However, Ms. Mahoney believes that as soon as the freehold law is approved by the UAE authorities then a second great deluge of buyers will hit the Dubai real estate market.

'At the moment it's a Catch 22 situation. People won't buy because they can't sell. And people can't sell because others won't buy.

'Once the freehold law is in place that situation will change. It will also make an enormous difference to confidence when buyers can actually see the physical product. Even getting the six Dubai Marina towers occupied will have a great impact.

'On the pricing side it is a question of supply and demand, and I think it will be several years until you see an upward change in prices. The market has to stabilize first and we have to see if enough investors emerge to absorb the supply.

'How big is the market? Who can afford to rent all these homes? These are questions that we can not answer at the moment. What we do see are a large number of projects coming on to the market'.

But Ms. Mahoney agrees that the developers are working on small margins and that in absolute and relative terms Dubai property is inexpensive when compared to other properties sold abroad.

She describes the Dubai market as being in a 'holding pattern' at the moment while the freehold law is finalized, but notes that the 'confidence, credibility and forward thinking of the Dubai Government' is well appreciated by investors who presently have huge liquidity at their disposal. That second wave of real estate investment does not sound very far off.

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