Rebuilding Iraq moves to a new level

It was perhaps inevitable that the more naïve view of the rebuilding of Iraq, and the instant installation of Western democracy into this Arab nation was doomed to failure.

But nobody expected this bold adventure as admirably laid out in 'The New Iraq', a hastily written book by Middle East analyst Joseph Braude, to end so fast. Yet the arrival of new chief US administrator Paul Bremer this week, and the haste to replace his predecessor Jay Garner, shows that the rebuilding of Iraq has already moved on to a new level.

The first priority must be to restore law and order, and to replace administrative chaos with a functioning bureaucracy. So far only the Oil Ministry shows any signs of progress in this regard.

Mistakes have been made. Sending a female bureaucrat in to act as governor of Baghad was clearly one such error of judgment, and one that has cost valuable time and energy. Retired general Jay Garner, increasingly seen as a likeable buffoon was not a much better choice.

The London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies argues in a report this week that 'forging unity and a democracy of substance in Iraq will be difficult. Overseeing Iraq's rebirth as a pluralistic democracy is likely to require exposure and staying power in the Middle East, and a taste for nation building generally that have not distinguished US policy in the past'.

Where does that leave US policy in Iraq? 'In a mess', is the short answer. What will inevitably now follow is a government of military occupation, albeit led by a civilian. US forces will have to impose law and order on Iraq, as indeed the Geneva Convention on warfare requires them to do.

By extension that means all Iraq reconstruction contracts for the time being will be under the auspices of the US military or other US official aid organizations. It will clearly be sometime before ordinary commerce and trade between Iraq and its neighbors can be resumed.

After law and order and healthcare, the priority for Mr. Bremer will surely be the introduction of a replacement for the Iraqi currency. This would follow the successful pattern of the introduction of the Afghani after the ousting of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

With functioning legal system and new currency, along with the resumption of oil exports, Iraq should then be in a position to start the long road to recovery. But make no mistake this is a long road.

As Joseph Braude points out in his useful new book, per capita income in Iraq has slumped below $1,000 per annum, making oil-rich Iraq one of the poorest nations on earth. A nation can not simply bounce from that position to one of immense wealth in a few months.

It took Russia more than a decade to shrug-off the legacy of 70 years of communism, and there are still many problems that are still being tackled now. Saddam Hussein's more than two decades of economic mismanagement have left Iraq bankrupt and its infrastructure in tatters.

Perhaps the wisest decision the US could take is to make an economic revival in Iraq its priority, and to put democracy on to the backburner. The alternative is a downward spiral into anarchy, which would not benefit either the US or the interests of the Iraqi people.