Pressure grows on international community to impose sanctions on Syria's oil and gas sector

Syria has witnessed mass protests against the current regime across the country in recent months and the violent reaction to attempt to quell them has been met with widespread condemnation from not just Europe and the US, but influential Middle East countries such as Saudi Arabia.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime has cracked down hard on protestors in the country, with reports from Avaaz, a global campaign movement, revealing an estimated 1,634 people had died in the unrest so far, while a further 2,918 had disappeared and around 26,000 had been arrested.

The unrest has not had a significant impact on the oil and gas sectors in Syria as of yet, with oil production actually increasing over the first half of this year, compared to the same period last year. Crude oil production currently stands at 387,250 barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 1,000bpd on 2010 figures. Official figures showed exports to be at 154,405 bpd while gas production has risen to 30.29 mmcm/d.

Current sanctions target individuals

Current sanctions have been targeting individuals and organisations rather than whole sectors such as the oil industry.

"The sanctions have not been universal in nature. The likes of the EU and US have been working in tandem, targeting similar people and organisations and the focus has been on the people associated with regime and the crackdown. So there has been limited cross-over to the oil and gas sector so far," Catherine Hunter, senior analyst of the Levant region at IHS tells AMEinfo.com.

In the US, 68 senators have written to US President Barack Obama in the past month, asking for an increase in sanctions on Syria, particularly on the real estate, financial and oil sectors. The US has limited investment in the energy sector due to existing restrictions so any sanctions imposed by President Obama would be on the financial sector, which would have a further knock-on effect on oil and gas.

A statement from the UN Security Council has joined international voices condemning the violence used by the Assad's regime.

"The Security Council calls for an immediate end to all violence and urges all sides to act with utmost restraint, and to refrain from reprisals, including attacks against state institutions. The Security Council calls on the Syrian authorities to fully respect human rights and to comply with their obligations under applicable international law. Those responsible for the violence should be held accountable," the statement reads.

A report from a London based think-tank, Strategic Research & Communications, has concluded that targeting oil revenues is the best way to bring down the Syrian regime without a detrimental effect on civilians. "Oil revenue would only affect the regime, as it is not invested to improve the conditions of the people and is not spent on development. Sanctions on oil exports would not affect the people, but would cut off the steady flow of foreign currency diverted to the regime's mercenaries," states the report.

Sanctions on oil sector would affect revenue significantly

However, there is also a view that an impact on the people is inevitable when sanctions are imposed. "[Oil is] a significant source of revenue and in that way helps to provide public services as well as support the regime, a lot of things in Syria are subsidised by the government and it might not be able to do so if the cash flow is drawn back. I suppose the issue would be if the sanctions were effective and water tight," states Hunter.

"Unless there is something through the UN process, which seems unlikely at present it would be a partial approach and therefore something very painful over the long run but not immediately effective. So I think it's a blunt instrument," she adds.

Saudi Arabia King condemns killing of citizens

The importance of the reaction of other Middle East states cannot be underestimated. Saudi's King Abdullah himself has called for a stop to the killing in Syria and has withdrawn the country's ambassador, along with Bahrain and Kuwait. "I think it is very important," reveals Hunter. "But again it is a subtle impact rather than anything meaningful but I suppose the impact of each of these measures when taken collectively becomes far more powerful."

Although calls are growing for sanctions to be placed on the Syrian energy sector, there is no clear sign that the UN will do so, and how effective they would be even if it were to happen.

For the Syrian people, the more significant cause for optimism may be the involvement of powerhouse neighbours such as Saudi Arabia, rather than calls for sanctions. As casualties from the protests mount, the Syrian opposition will need something to give them hope of overthrowing Assad's regime. And they may need it sooner rather than later.