A.J. Jaganathan

'You just do the calculation,' he says. 'Out of the one million plus inhabitants of Dubai around 400-500,000 people earn more than Dhs8,000-a-year and could afford to buy a home. Even accounting for the young and transient that leaves 200-300,000 potential home owners.

'In the past 10 years Dubai's population has grown at a compound rate of 8-9% per annum,' he says. 'That means 3-5,000 expatriate families move in each year. So we have only really scratched the surface so far for potential demand for housing with the 15,000 units sold so far'.

The gentle-giant 'AJ' as he is generally known admits that the rush to buy seen in the summer of 2002 has died down, and that sales are 'steady and sustained' today after a definite lull before the war in Iraq.

He is not sure what will trigger the next wave of property buying in Dubai but AJ is sure it will come. It could be the expected changes to UAE real estate law, or a gradual build up of confidence in this nascent market.

Meantime, Emaar's CEO confirms that list prices of Emaar Properties have been raised 'zone by zone' and that a few cancelled property bookings have been re-sold 'at raised prices'.

Thus far around one-third of sales have been to UAE and GCC Nationals and the balance to expatriates and outsiders. Residency visas have been issued to 'more than a handful of residents' says AJ, who sees the retirement market as having major potential particularly for European tax exiles.

On September 27 the first residents of the three apartment towers of the Dubai Marina Phase 1 begin to move in, and by the end of March the Phase II towers will also be occupied. Emaar has already started building five more towers further down the Dubai Marina.

By the end of the year Emaar will also have handed over more than 1,000 villas from The Meadows, a landscaped community near to the Emirates Golf Course, where AJ lives himself. However, there have been some delays to completion although these are being addressed.

'There has not been a development in Dubai on this scale before and local contractors are not used to it, but they are working to ensure that the time is made up,' admits AJ, although he denies that the war in Iraq had any impact on building supplies.

He is also strongly dismissive of rumours that Emaar is compromising on quality. 'We work very hard to maintain quality,' he says. 'If there is a design issue we go back and sort it out. But to us quality is of key importance'.

Elsewhere, the golf course at the Arabian Ranches villa community will be ready to play by the end of the year, and Phase 1 of 800 plus homes is under construction. Also the delivery of the more than 3,000 town houses at The Springs will start in the second half of next year.

The 'Rent-to-buy' scheme at The Greens apartment development is also going well. Phase 1 of 200 plus apartments launched in July is sold out.

'We may extend the 'Rent-to-buy' option which is particularly popular with expatriates who may not wish to take on a medium term commitment for a variety of reasons,' says AJ. 'They can always pull out of the sale then and have only paid two years' rent for which they have received value. It also means that buyers do not need to find a deposit'.

These are exciting times for Emaar Properties, and Emaar is also working on the detailed studies and designs of the Burj Dubai which will be the tallest building in the world. Early next year piling will begin. But AJ is not giving any clues on the final height, although he says the Burj Dubai will be 'more than 120 plus floors'.