Interview with Iraq's Minister of Trade

Q. How do you see the situation right now in Iraq? When can we expect to see real stability?

A. Insofar as stability is concerned, there can be no doubt that the situation is improving. If you're asking me when we can expect Iraq to become a violence-free society, I would say that we should expect that some time in the course of the next few months.

The so-called insurgency - which is not really an insurgency but more like a group of individuals who have refused to accept the change that has taken place - is continuing to commit acts of atrocity and terrorism.

But, by and large, the situation is under control now and the frequency and the significance of these attacks is decreasing over time.

So I think some time between now and the summer - certainly after June 30th, when the transfer of authority to a sovereign government will be affirmed - I expect there to be a rapid decline in terrorist acts and acts of random violence.

Q. But this won't be an elected government, will it? When do you see elections coming in Iraq?

A. You misunderstand. We're talking about the Transitional Authority here. The Transitional Authority is going to manage the period between its own installation and the installation of a sovereign, fully democratic government, and that will take, under the current plans, around 18 months.

It's a process that will include the election of a constitutional convention, which in turn will form a constitution under which new elections will be held.

So it's a step along the path. We ourselves, the coalition and the other main players in Iraq, are all determined to make sure that the Transitional Authority is as representative as possible.

Q. At the moment, as trade minister, are you putting in place the infrastructure for the future? Are you looking right now at trade partnerships for tomorrow?

A. The situation now is such that long-term planning is difficult: things are in flux and there are large elements of uncertainty as to what long-term economic policy should be.

But within the parameters we are working in, we are trying to set the stage for a liberal, market-oriented economy based on the principles of free trade and strong growth in the private sector.

However, translating that into specific rules and regulations will take time: we don't want to overstretch by taking upon ourselves the obligation of the functions of a fully democratic government.

We absolutely understand that we are a transitional government and that, as such, our job is to prepare the ground for something after.

A. Taking a slightly longer-term view, does it make sense to you that Iraq become a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council?

A. My opinion is that Iraq should forge close relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council, but that it is unlikely to join the organization, not because of any economic issues, but because, first of all, the GCC countries have many elements in common.

They are basically traditional societies that are very much dependent on oil. With the exception of Saudi Arabia, they have relatively low populations, and they don't have the same socioeconomic profile as Iraq.

Keep in mind that Iraq is a country with around 25 million people, which still has a large agricultural sector, and which is at a different stage of development than the GCC. We would not necessarily be joining an association of countries similar to our own.

But we hope that in time, as the Iraqi economy improves, and as we become a more and more developed society, an opportunity will present itself. However, right now our main concern is to have good trade and investment relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

Q. To what extent do you think the Iraqi economy is hampered by the effects of the war and the reparations that you have to make from the first Gulf War? How much of a burden does that place on the economy?

A. The legacy of the Saddam regime is extremely burdensome. We are saddled with anywhere up to $150 billion of debt. But with the current efforts being undertaken to restructure and reduce the debt burden, we should end up, after this cycle, with a much more balanced debt profile.

A lot of the debt incurred in the past was a result of the regime's wars of aggression. We have been given reason to believe that a lot of it will be written off by those countries that financed Iraq's activities.

Q. Were you living in exile before you took up the post of trade minister?

A. Yes, I was living in London. I was an investment banker. But I've always been active in the opposition to Saddam Hussein. When I was nominated for a cabinet post, I accepted. I think it's part of our responsibility. I hadn't been back since the Saddam regime came to power in 1968.

Q. What is it like, not as a minister, but as an Iraqi, going home after so long?

A. Going home to a country that has changed - and I myself have changed, too - produces a mixture of elation and sadness: elation to be back in my own country after a long period of exile, and sadness at the state to which it has been reduced by horrible economic policies and by even worse political and human rights abuses.

Iraq does not deserve what has happened to it. The people have been rendered destitute by a very brutal and dictatorial regime. And the end result is that, while we could have been one of the most developed countries in the Middle East with a per capita income of around southern European levels, we are now one of the poorest countries in the area, with a decrepit infrastructure and a brutalized society.

But the spirit of the Iraqi people is strong, and it's only a matter of time before they are ready to recuperate.

Q. What is your long-term role in the reconstruction of Iraq? Are you considering contesting the elections when they are eventually held?

A. As I said, I'm a transitional figure. I do not envisage a political career for myself. I hope always to be active in the Iraqi economy and in business, but once this period is over, I will go back to private life.

Q. When do you see Iraq joining the World Trade Organization?

A. We have just applied for observer status, which will lead, hopefully, to WTO membership within the next two years.

Q. Wouldn't it be true to say that joining the WTO is becoming an ever more arduous task as an increasing number of countries impose more and more conditions on new members?

A. Possibly true, but there is a certain process you have to go through to achieve membership, and one of the steps is to become an observer. We also have to align our rules and regulations in order to achieve WTO membership, and that takes time. But we are reasonably confident that the process can be achieved within two years.

Q. Does Iraq's small and medium enterprise sector still exist and, if so, what kind of shape is it in?

A. The sector exists, but it's starved of capital, skills and technology. One of our priorities at the ministry is to strengthen the SME sector by bringing these three factors to bear.

Iraqis are very entrepreneurial people and it's a matter of a relatively short space of time before they'll be able to pick up the pieces and get on with their lives.