Interview with Iraq's Minister of Trade (page 1 of 2)

Q. How do you see the situation right now in Iraq? When can we expect to see real stability?

A. Insofar as stability is concerned, there can be no doubt that the situation is improving. If you're asking me when we can expect Iraq to become a violence-free society, I would say that we should expect that some time in the course of the next few months.

The so-called insurgency - which is not really an insurgency but more like a group of individuals who have refused to accept the change that has taken place - is continuing to commit acts of atrocity and terrorism.

But, by and large, the situation is under control now and the frequency and the significance of these attacks is decreasing over time.

So I think some time between now and the summer - certainly after June 30th, when the transfer of authority to a sovereign government will be affirmed - I expect there to be a rapid decline in terrorist acts and acts of random violence.

Q. But this won't be an elected government, will it? When do you see elections coming in Iraq?

A. You misunderstand. We're talking about the Transitional Authority here. The Transitional Authority is going to manage the period between its own installation and the installation of a sovereign, fully democratic government, and that will take, under the current plans, around 18 months.

It's a process that will include the election of a constitutional convention, which in turn will form a constitution under which new elections will be held.

So it's a step along the path. We ourselves, the coalition and the other main players in Iraq, are all determined to make sure that the Transitional Authority is as representative as possible.

Q. At the moment, as trade minister, are you putting in place the infrastructure for the future? Are you looking right now at trade partnerships for tomorrow?

A. The situation now is such that long-term planning is difficult: things are in flux and there are large elements of uncertainty as to what long-term economic policy should be.

But within the parameters we are working in, we are trying to set the stage for a liberal, market-oriented economy based on the principles of free trade and strong growth in the private sector.

However, translating that into specific rules and regulations will take time: we don't want to overstretch by taking upon ourselves the obligation of the functions of a fully democratic government.

We absolutely understand that we are a transitional government and that, as such, our job is to prepare the ground for something after.

A. Taking a slightly longer-term view, does it make sense to you that Iraq become a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council?

A. My opinion is that Iraq should forge close relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council, but that it is unlikely to join the organization, not because of any economic issues, but because, first of all, the GCC countries have many elements in common.

They are basically traditional societies that are very much dependent on oil. With the exception of Saudi Arabia, they have relatively low populations, and they don't have the same socioeconomic profile as Iraq.

Keep in mind that Iraq is a country with around 25 million people, which still has a large agricultural sector, and which is at a different stage of development than the GCC.