Winners and losers in the GCC markets in 2004

Last year's star performer Kuwait may have already topped out, judging from the peak early in January. A retreat from this top still leaves the Kuwait Stock Exchange up 3% this year, a little disappointing from a market that doubled in value last year.

On the other hand, the GCC's biggest bourse has kept up express train performance, and the Saudi Tadawul index is up by 11% in 2004. With oil prices at a 13-year high it is hard to see this situation moderating unless the oil price comes under pressure in Q2. And that is possible but not very likely in present geopolitical circumstances.

However, the new star is Qatar, with the Doha Securities Market up by a heroic 24%. Abundant liquidity and great results from local companies have fuelled investor confidence and sent prices soaring.

In the UAE and Oman enthusiasm is almost as strong, with local shares up by 10% and 9% respectively. For the UAE in particular, stratospheric investment levels, excellent profits from local firms, a hugely popular IPO from Amlak Finance and bumper dividends for shareholders have revived interest in the local bourse.

Only the Bahrain Stock Exchange is in negative territory so far in 2004, down 1.5%. But surely that can not last for long with the Gulf Air Grand Prix circus about to hit town, and all shares available for foreign ownership, a novelty in the GCC.