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Geopolitics remains key market driver
- Tuesday, March 23 - 2004 at 09:31
Last week geopolitical news in the aftermath of the Madrid bombings remained the key driver for markets.
This week we expect US durable goods orders to have picked up in February but a downward revision to March consumer sentiment.
German and Belgian business sentiment is expected to move sideways. The Madrid bombings may have had some downward impact on the surveys.
In Japan personal spending should have fallen back in February and deflation is likely to have persisted in March.
Focus on Equities :
After exploring new year-to-date lows at the beginning of last week, markets gradually recovered towards triple witching Friday. Geopolitical news, in the aftermath of the Madrid attacks, remained the key driver.
This week, apart from some key economic indicators, we expect that earnings reports from Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Telekom and Metro will presumably inspire markets.
Furthermore, pre-announcements, hopefully positive ones, will start to flood the markets in anticipation of the first quarter earnings season.
Foreign Exchanges :
The euro is trapped between resistance at 1.2460 and support at 1.2060. A further consolidation within this range may be expected.
The decline back below USD/YEN 108.00 suggests that this is more than just a correction and puts the odds in favour of a resumption of the downtrend.
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