Where next for the Middle East media sector?

Advertising revenues in the UAE are almost equal to those of the much larger Saudi Arabian market, and total just a little short of a billion dollars. This revenue is on a rapid growth track, but so is the number of players.

In the magazine segment, the explosion of new titles has undermined the economics of some old names. In the UAE alone more than a hundred titles now exist whereas a decade ago there was barely a dozen, and indeed new launches have slowed down.

The mention of audited circulation sends a shiver down the spines of magazine publishers. Blue chip advertisers like Unilever have made their feelings clear in public, and behind the scenes the pressure for solid figures on circulation is mounting.

For publishers already suffering from hyper-competition, the revelation of their micro-circulations promises to bring about a final fall-out in this sector. Many advertisers think that would be no bad thing, as it might put a premium on creating a better product to really attract readers.

Newspapers are suffering from a similar crisis with new titles launching in many markets, particularly in the Arabic language, and struggling to gain credibility in the eyes of the advertising agencies. Here it is hard not to see the old names surviving while many of the young pretenders fail to make it.

There is also a battle royal looming in the satellite TV market, again with the biggest action in the Arabic segment. Dubai TV is making a serious pitch to take some of the market dominated by LBC and MBC, and it will be interesting to see how this pans out.

Meanwhile, the Internet is now being taken seriously as an advertising media and the biggest regional websites - Yahoo! Maktoob and AME Info - often feature in media buying schedules.

Key websites have attained audited audience figures that outclass many regional newspapers and certainly leave magazines in the shade. But the cost-per-banner remains cheap, and websites are the most cost effective media for many advertisers, particularly the major airlines and banks, both sectors with their own big online ambitions.

Fortunately the boom in advertising revenue is sufficient to support most Middle East media these days, and there are still more launches than closures. The real test, of course, will come when the market conditions are less auspicious.