Will Iraq now deliver real business opportunities?

Watching the mayhem in the run-up to the handover of power from the US-led coalition - now renamed the Multinational Force - to the new Iraqi Government, businessmen could be forgiven a little skepticism about the outlook.

Thus far the US-led administration has disbursed a little over $3 billion of the $18 billion allocated by the US Congress for reconstruction work in Iraq. It has simply been too dangerous for the contractors to get on with repairs to vital services.

That means power black outs in Baghdad, problems in obtaining clean water supplies in many places and even a shortage of petrol in a land endowed with huge oil reserves. Needless to say the local stock market still is not functioning.

It is to be hoped that the new Iraqi administration of Prime Minister Iyad Allawi is up to the job. Certainly the statements on the need for marshal law to restore security and the rule of law and order are on the right lines. But action and not words are required.

We will all be following the progress of the new administration with great interest. If it can manage to include alienated factions while keeping a strong arm against violence, then it has a good chance of success.

One thing the administration is not short of is funding to draw upon. The good side to the US-led administration's failure to disburse funds is that those funds still exist, and can be deployed to restore vital services and the commercial infrastructure of the country.

For Gulf-based multinationals that promises an economic boom in Iraq. The customers have immediate demands - new IT equipment for a modern nation, for example - and the cash to pay.

Now if Mr. Allawi and his friends play their cards right, there is every chance that this economic success will follow in Iraq. The alternative scenario is a civil war which benefits none of the parties concerned.

Surely the insurgents must realize that the game is up. A strong Iraqi Prime Minister backed by a huge Multinational Force will never be beaten. The insurgents do not have the official support of any country, and will lack any legitimacy once Iraqi sovereignty is restored; these fighters have a hopeless cause and failure is just a matter of time.

Economic booms often follow in the wake of wars, and that is where Iraq is most probably heading now. Standby for the Iraqi Economic Miracle!