Is Linux a threat to Microsoft?

In his wildest dreams, Microsoft founder Bill Gates could not have foreseen that the greatest challenge to his software empire would come from a friendly looking penguin named Tux, the mascot for the open-source operating system Linux.

Named after its originator, Linus Torvalds, Linux is the standard bearer of the open-source software movement. In brief, this means that the code for the operating system - which acts as the layer between the hardware of a computer such as a PC and the applications such as word processing - is not owned by any corporation, but rather belongs to the worldwide community of developers.

This provides tremendous energy and flexibility but does raise issues of support and required in-house technical skills, which have delayed a widespread adoption of Linux. Not any more Ð Linux is now mainstream. Linux is an operating system, initially created in 1991 as a hobby project by Torvalds when he was at the University of Helsinki in Finland.

Version 1.0 of the Linux Kernel was released three years later. Linux is developed under the GNU (General Public License) and its source code is freely available to everyone. However, companies and developers may charge money for it as long as the source code remains available. At present, there are dozens of ongoing projects for porting Linux to various hardware configurations and purposes.

To use it, you need what is called a distribution - there are numerous ones available for download on the Internet as well as for purchase from various vendors. Some are general- purpose and some are optimized for specific uses.

Note: you are not purchasing Linux; you are paying for the distribution. Linux is a registered trademark of Torvalds, who now works for the Open Source Development Labs in the US and still controls global development of the Linux Kernel. Over the past decade, Linux has won the commitment of industry giants like IBM and Oracle.

As for HP, its Linux-based revenue for the 2003 fiscal year was over $2.5 billion. Following an earlier, similar conversion to the wonders of Java, the big boys see Linux as a key weapon in an ongoing battle for the heart and soul of the IT industry between Microsoft and other key players.

Market share

It's a battle being fought in other fields, too - look, for example, at the numerous lawsuits and monopoly actions brought against the software vendor by other IT vendors and by government bodies worldwide. Microsoft is just too powerful. And it has a habit of refusing to allow competing Ð and often better - products to gain significant footholds in the market.

So Internet Explorer wins over Netscape Navigator, Windows Media Player wins over QuickTime and so on. Well, no more, say users, developers and vendors. With a free operating system they can recreate the sort of semi-level playing fields that the market used to enjoy, users can get lower running costs and developers can innovate, unhampered by a Windows code base that is both hard to document and secure.

Indeed, for many, the relative lack of Linux viruses and hacker attacks is a prime reason for considering the move. That's why, according to Christian Kroker, managing director of Dubai Internet City-based Linux player Enigmatis, there is more interest in Linux.

Linux is inherently a more stable and secure platform than Windows. This is partly because the viruses do not run on Linux, thus security is more robust. Enigmatis recently installed a Windows server that was riddled with viruses and worms within a week.

In sharp contrast, he adds, our Linux server has sat there for over a year without a problem. These are areas in which Microsoft can, and has, taken the fight back to the Linux camp. One argument that has left many potential users confused is the issue of total cost of ownership.

Yes, says Microsoft, Linux may be free, but when you factor in other costs such as necessary staff training, rewriting software and so on, then Windows is a better alternative. There is some truth to this, but Microsoft's case was badly hurt by an independent TCO report by leading analysts Forrester that was, it later turned out, funded by the software giant. (Worth noting: Forrester has also now withdrawn from future commercial research of this kind.)

Sun shines on Linux

However, not all vendors agree with the cost issue. Mehmet Iyimen, managing director of Sun Microsystems MENA, claims that Linux is proving itself to be a key low-cost computing platform for Middle East enterprises.

Regional customers are using Linux to manage IT infrastructures by matching the right platform to the right task while managing complexity, reducing cost and keeping an open standards focus. Microsoft is also working hard on the security issues that have been bedeviling it; although, to be fair, if users were more scrupulous about applying security patches and system updates, then the problems would not be so great.

According to Torvalds, Microsoft is not in trouble. I think they are struggling to deal with Linux partly because Linux is undermining them the same way they undercut their competition. If you look at DOS, or maybe compilers, one thing that happened with Microsoft was that these upstarts came out and had cheaper compilers.

DOS was also cheap and it undercut the competition, he points out. They never had a competitor like themselves. Then along comes somebody who undercuts them and they start acting exactly how all of their competitors acted.

'The biggest problem with Linux is that it is being promoted as anything but Microsoft,' retorts Haider Salloum, the marketing manager for Microsoft South Gulf. They're pitching this as David versus Goliath: we're this big monster that's going to eat up everything. And it's true that people want to have a choice. But as an IT manager or as a businessman, you have to assess the choice you're going to make at a technical level - not at an emotional level.'

However, specifically in this region, Microsoft faces a major challenge: it is an American company. It can make Arabic a tier-one language for new software releases, but it can't disguise its origins. That's a problem when there is a general upswing of anti-American feeling in this part of the world; fatal in countries where the US government has sanctions in place.

Want legitimate and supported Microsoft software in territories like Syria, Libya and other non- players of the US game? Good luck. Growth forecasts. That's why homegrown support services, based on Linux user groups are mushrooming across the region.

That's why new Linux training and implementation vendors are forecasting a good year ahead. That's why homegrown Arabization initiatives - both in IBM's Cairo laboratory and at Riyadh's King Abdul Aziz University for Science and Technology Ð are blossoming.

And that's why, most importantly, a whole region-wide community of Linux developers is spreading across the Middle East, able to use the openness of the operating system to adapt to local demands and to help roll out lower-cost solutions to enterprises and governments who have traditionally used the Unix operating system.

Across the region, enterprises of all sizes and in all market sectors are adopting Linux. The Al Ghurair Group in the UAE is running Oracle applications, as is the Habib AG Zurich Bank, Dubai, which is running core-banking applications with Linux.

Other regional Linux users are the Bahraini government, Saudi Aramco and Emirates Industrial Gases, to name just a few big players making the switch from Microsoft. According to Samer Karawi, HP Middle East's marketing manager, Enterprise Systems Group, Linux will take Unix's market share. Adds Hatem Al-Sibai, group IT manager for the Al Ghurair Group, Our decision to migrate from Windows to Linux was driven by the need to achieve higher uptime for our business while improving information security and reducing cost of ownership.

Not so, says Salloum. Microsoft fixes its vulnerabilities faster than Linux. It's not easy to go in and fix these problems. And you don't want someone to go in and fix one problem, then break something else in the process.

'So why should you care about Linux?' asks Ayman Abouseif, Oracle MEA's senior marketing director. 'First, cost savings are an obvious draw for enterprises, as Linux is a far less expensive alternative to other operating systems.

'Second, Linux runs on lower-cost, non- proprietary hardware computer systems, so organizations can deploy it on low-cost commodity hardware. Third, Linux is open source, so dependence on a single vendor is replaced with greater innovation. As with any new, low-cost, non-proprietary technology, Linux gets cheaper over time.'

Hidden costs

Microsoft's Salloum argues that this is the farthest thing from reality. Everybody now knows that Linux is not free, he says. You get the license for free, but if you want any support or patches, you have to buy a license. The Linux distributors have seen that they cannot support it for free. It's just not free.

You see all this stuff in the news that says that Linux is free, so they think, why should I pay for it? But it is not just a question of the initial cost, but the total cost of ownership. Nevertheless, to more and more people across the region, there are compelling reasons to switch to Linux.

They certainly have the support of Torvalds, who says, I personally find it much more encouraging when there are local centers of knowledge that do their own thing and really take advantage of the fact that with open source you can really customize the system and the applications for the local needs.

Torvalds also think that Linux adds value to the long-term self-determinism of the region: Part of that long-term future should definitely be the question about whether the area can itself steer its own IT infrastructure, or be left dependent on outside sources of proprietary software.