New survey registers increasing regional business confidence

The survey was carried out in the last 2 weeks of October by YouGov, a leading UK-based market research agency. Respondents include commercial managers, procurement executives, recruitment executives and financial officers as well as CEOs and Chairmen of domestic and international companies.

Published in the Middle East Economic Digest, the survey shows that the index, set at 100 when it was launched in June this year, has now reached 104.91. The index is based on an online questionnaire which seeks views on a wide range of issues facing businesses in the Middle East. These include economic prospects, drivers of change, the commercial potential of Iraq, regulation and liberalisation in the region's economies, profitability, turnover and expectations for cross border trade.

YouGov interviewed a total of 571individuals online for the latest survey. Over half of them worked for organisations based in the Middle East and two thirds were resident in the region. Some 80% were in the private sector and 11% in the government sector.

The principal countries covered by the survey are UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Kuwait. These nations correspond to the principal markets for HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, HSBC Bank Egypt, The Saudi British Bank (an associate company of the HSBC Group) and MEED.

In its report, MEED states "The main impetus for the improvement has come from the continued rise in the 4 month rolling average oil price - at close to peak capacity production - surging money supply and upwardly revised estimates of both corporate and public sector capital investment programmes. The survey highlighted the confidence regional business leaders have in their ability to grow profits - 38% are forecasting earnings growth of more than 15% in full year 2004, and 25% are projecting additional growth of more than 15% again in 2005."

Questions in the latest survey included support for a single GCC currency and the impact of the threat of terrorism on business. Almost half of the respondents strongly supported the introduction of a single currency and a further 36% tended to support it. The threat of terrorism, on the other hand, was recognised particularly among foreign based organisations. Almost half had tightened their security arrangements, and 19% reported relocating personnel as a result. But only 4% of respondents said that they had closed offices for fear of terrorist activity.