Technology trends in 2005

Oracle sees some interesting technology developments that are set to bring benefits to both the public and private sectors. In 2005, some will become broadly adopted, while others will remain further out on the horizon.

Grid Computing
Predicting the future of technology change has been key to Oracle's success and Oracle is confident that a Grid-based enterprise IT infrastructure is the next logical evolution in IT. Grid computing, which helps companies save money via optimum utilisation of hardware resources, is gaining increased acceptance.

Whilst last year, customers asked - what is Grid? - this year, they enquire - how can I implement Grid? The concept of Grid is easy to grasp - it utilises the estimated 40 percent of wasted storage capacity that languishes in most organisations' servers. Year 2005 will see a much broader implementation of this cost-reducing technology.

The Year of Linux in the Enterprise
In 2002 Oracle bet heavily on Linux and has since transferred many of its operations to the open source based operating system.

In 2005 Oracle expects an increasing number of both public and private organisations to follow in their footsteps, moving Linux from an IT project to a mission-critical enterprise operating system. Within the public sector, Linux is increasing becoming the operating system of choice, as it is freely available, thereby reducing government costs.

On-Demand Computing
Software as a service - a model under which companies can outsource the deployment, management, maintenance and support of business software to third-party service providers - has been a slow burner since first touted a few years ago, but is becoming increasingly popular.

The interest has become so pronounced that technology industry analyst IDC Corporation has predicted that by 2005, this model - which heralds the convergence of two previously discrete functions, software delivery and customer service - will grow into a US$24-billion-a year market.

Would-be users are starting to overcome their initial resistance to having critical data managed off-site as hosting models become more sophisticated and secure. The compelling driver is the predictable costs and substantial savings. Early adopters are eulogising about the costs savings of anything between 25% to 50% of their total IT budgets.

Service-oriented architectures (SOA) will reflect how we use our systems
In the evolution of computing architectural systems, the mainframe model was followed by client/server, which itself was dramatically made obsolete by the advent of the Internet.

Today, Service-oriented architectures (SOA) are the next architectural change in how computing programmes are created. SOA is nascent today, but it signals the next big shift in the development of computing architectures. Computers have always been used for the automation of business processes.

What companies are now focusing on is the correct management of these processes (Business Process Management, or BPM), which requires the computer functions that map to these processes to be architected as services which can be independently invoked. SOA is the architectural approach that will enable this to happen.

SOA is set to have a major influence on the development of business IT systems over the coming years. This isn't something that will happen overnight as it will require organisations to devote considerable time and investment to get it right. Towards the end of 2004, businesses began to recognise the significance of SOA adoption.

Vendors have therefore started jockeying for a position in this potentially lucrative market, but there are several challenges which organisations will need to look out for in 2005, including evolving standards, security and Web Services. With Web Services and SOAs set for wider adoption, Oracle predicts that the companies that start the necessary integration approach to enable SOA and BPM now will be giving themselves a significant competitive edge as SOAs become more widespread.

Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) Still a Year Away
One of the most exciting applications now becoming commercially available, and that will benefit from grid computing to ensure sound data management, is one that will eventually connect 10's of Billions of objects to the network. Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) will truly take us into the era of Pervasive Computing - the Internet of Things! RFID is set to replace traditional bar code technology.

The key industry sectors that are set to adopt this include retail, consumer packaged goods, high tech, homeland security, travel and transportation, industrial manufacturing and automotive.

At one extreme of RFID technology you can have a very inexpensive passive tag which carries just the unique identifier of the object and can be read on a radius of a few meters by a device which in turns transmits the information through the Internet to the appropriate database.

This will enable the tracking of an object all the way from manufacturing, through distribution, to disposal at point of sale. This will significantly improve the efficiency of the supply chain, reduce product leakage, and enable tracking of good which need to be managed safely.

At the other extreme of this technology you can have a sophisticated chip with temperature sensors and a GPS system that can enable continuous tracking of expensive or dangerous goods. Or for example can ensure that frozen goods are never exposed to a temperature that would damage the goods.

Currently, most of today's RFID deployments have been limited to entry-level efforts where the data management issues are more controllable. Limited successes in today's trials will mean projects will get under way from late 2005 through the middle of 2006.

Electronic healthcare systems
Internet-based health services (e-Health) are one of the priorities of the e-Europe 2005 action plan, devised to bring European Union citizens and businesses online. The aim of the eHealth programme is to provide effective and interoperable information systems for patients and health professionals across Europe, to help drive down costs and increase patient care.

Oracle believes that technology can help drive these critical reforms: electronic medical records, patient ID and health cards, and faster Internet services for health systems to support IT applications are all part of the EC's vision for a 'European eHealth Area'. In 2005, we should see a greater swell of eHealth implementations across the European Union.

Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology, the manufacture of products from components smaller than 100 nanometres (the smallest size object that can be seen under a light microscope), has been around for some years. Nanotechnology can produce revolutionary, 'smart' products leading to greater cost-efficiencies or greater innovation as a driver for developing markets.

It offers many possibilities to industry in the development of new products such as paints (with nanoparticles), medicines (coated drugs for targeted drug delivery), foodstuffs ('taste-burst' foods), clothing (stay-clean textiles with nanofibres), packaging (specially adapted polymers that prevent contamination and sense decay) and new materials for aerospace, automotive and construction applications (lightweight but tough, heat-resistant nanocomposites). These are called 'incremental nanotechnology'.

The biggest steps are currently being made in evolutionary nanotechnology where we move beyond simple materials that have been redesigned at the nano-scale to actual nano-scale devices that do something interesting. Such devices can, for example, sense the environment, process information or convert energy from one form to another.

They include nano-scale sensors that could be used in medicine or semiconductor nanostructures such as improved computers or lasers, with more and more products set to appear on the market over the next five years.

So what the hot ticket for 2005?
Overall, 2005 promises to be a year when we see a greater emergence of technologies that exploit the potential of the Internet revolution more fully. Linux has already gained worldwide endorsement but will embed itself properly into enterprise systems.

The big ticket for 2005 will be Grid computing - it's cost advantages are so compelling - and we'll continue to see steady adoption for On Demand.

SOA and RFID will be the slow-burners and take longer to become mainstream, but we'll see the discussion heat up on these technologies as the year progresses.