Planning for a busy autumn in the UAE

With Ramadan taking up October, the calendar of events is particularly hectic for business this fall. In Dubai the giant Gitex computer show is shifted to the end of September, and the Motor Show and Air Show will be held before the end of the year.

However, business planners will also be wondering what the fall out from the recent volatility seen in UAE stock markets will be. The involvement of retail investors in these investments may result in some weakness in consumer spending, particularly where loans have been channeled into the stock market.

But the general pattern of stock market gyrations is that short-term consumption is not affected much, it is longer-term investment plans which are postponed. Now whether this means that the booming real estate sector will suffer is a moot point.

On the one hand, some would-be property buyers will be out of the real estate market due to stock market activity. Then again, investors could soon no longer be pouring their savings into local shares and decide to buy property instead.

Certainly the YouGov Poll of UAE residents showed that the majority expects a 10% rise in rents next year and 4-5% rise in house prices, which would tend to suggest that buying a home to save on rent is still a good idea. Mortgage lenders are also busy coming up with new products that make owning a home more affordable, and UAE federal legislation on property should boost market sentiment.

Tourism and leisure seem set for further strong performance in the UAE. The dollar continues to be weak against the euro which is good for inbound tourism from Europe, and the spate of major exhibitions in Dubai will keep hotels full to capacity.

Meanwhile, there appears to be no end in sight for record oil price levels, with the strong possibility of an even higher spike in prices during the autumn. Against this background the UAE will continue to boom; and remarkable new projects will emerge, although most of the biggest projects are now underway.