Madar Research forecasts 109 million Arab mobile subscriptions by 2008

While growth will be slow to moderate in Gulf Cooperation Council member countries, as their markets approaches saturation, other Arab countries in the Levant and North Africa will witness very high growth, including Sudan and Yemen. The whole Arab world is forecast to undergo a compound average growth rate (CAGR) of 26 percent over the period 2005-2008, according to the Dubai Media City-based research firm.

This growth will lead to a pan Arab mobile penetration ratio of around 33 subscriptions for every 100 people. Though the pan-Arab mobile penetration rate will still be lower than the world average, many Arab countries will achieve much higher rates than the global level. Bahrain and he United Arab Emirates have already reached mobile penetration levels comparable with those prevalent in Western Europe.

"Liberalization of the telecommunication sector, whether undergoing or planned, will be the main driving force behind high mobile phone adoption, due to competition and the consequent fall in prices, wider coverage and improved quality," says Dr. Ammar Kamel, Madar Research.Vice President, Business Development.

The impact of mobile telecommunication liberalization on subscription growth, especially the transition from a monopoly to duopoly, has already proven to be impressive in countries like Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait and Morocco, according to an earlier study published in Madar Research Journal, which focuses on information and communication technology development in 18 Arab countries.

"There are some variations between the market dynamics in Arab countries, which drive growth in mobile subscription. Poor land-line service or long waiting lists due to low telephone capacity is leading consumers in some countries, such as the case in most of North Africa, to opt for mobile telephony, says Dr. Kamel.

"In the more affluent Arab countires, where more people are subscribing simultaneously for two or more mobile lines, the main driver is a strong interest in adopting the latest telecommunication technology as it converges with multimedia and Internet technologies," according to Dr. Kamel.

The full study on Arab mobile market details current subscription figures and growth in 18 Arab countires over the next three years, along with analysis and expert opinions. Madar Research (at www.madarresearch.com) has also announced the publishing in November 2005 of the UAE Knowledge Economy research-based book.