Eid Al Adha: reflect positively on the future of the Middle East

Events seldom standstill, and history is a series of accidents rather than conspiracies. Already in the opening days of 2006 two major regional political figures have passed away into oblivion, with the sudden demise of UAE Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Maktoum bin Rashid Al Maktoum, and the incapacity of the Prime Minister of Israel, Ariel Sharon.

At the same time oil prices have moved higher to $64-a-barrel, presaging another year of exceptionally high oil revenues in the Middle East. With economic growth still strong in the US and China, it would be a brave analyst that would predict lower oil and gas revenues for the region than in 2005.

Against this backdrop there is an upsurge of militancy among the more moderate citizens of the Middle East who want the cycle of violence to end, and the up-cycle of prosperity to reach them too.

Oil-fuelled optimism

For there is no doubt that with global energy prices at their current level, a new era of peace and prosperity is within the grasp of all people living in the region. Once the violence stops then the re-building can begin, and with oil revenues in hand, the New Middle East will emerge like a phoenix from the ashes.

In the early years of the Third Great Middle East Oil boom much investment has been concentrated in Dubai and Doha, creating the infrastructure of hub cities to serve the rest of the region. Now the boom needs to roll out across the Middle East, and the signs are good that this is going to happen.

Already we see Dubai companies forging new links across the region, and bringing new projects in their wake. Just look at Emaar Properties stunning plans for a new city outside Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, or the way Majid Al Futtaim has developed his shopping malls across the region.

Clearly the Palestinian territories and Iraq are the places that most need investment, and where the returns for the shrewdest investor will be highest. Here we have to hope that the will of the silent moderate majority will prevail over the men of violence, and that an international settlement will assist rather than enflame the situation.

But the availability of oil revenues to promote economic development and to foster necessary change without unduly disturbing the status quo should surely be a source of optimism about the future. All things are possible to those who dream big, and the past needs to be dealt with in the interests of the future and future generations.