• HSBC

Plenty Of Dollar Data For The Bull (page 1 of 3)

  • Tuesday, February 28 - 2006 at 02:34

After massive expansion from July to September, economic growth in the United States is expected to have slowed to a pace of 1.6% in the fourth quarter. Although a GDP growth rate of 1.6% is higher than the initially issued figure of 1.1%, the slowdown in expansion will represent a break in the country's longest quarterly growth spurt since the mid 1980's.

U.K. GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (FEB)(10:30 GMT, 5:30 EST)


Consensus: -4
Previous: -3

Outlook: Although keeping in time with the previous reading, consumer confidence is expected to remain stable in Europe's second largest economy as economic improvements remain imminent. Housing prices have continued to remain stable, even slightly rising in the previous reading. According to the most recent report by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, housing price balances climbed positive by 9 percent, following an 8 percent jump seen in December.

Additionally, retail sales figures remain higher overall, rising 6 out of the last 7 months of 2005 before declining in the month of January. Subsequently, the overall positive sentiment looks to remain further prompting central bankers to keep the current repurchase rate at 4.5 percent. Remaining preventive against inflation, the decision looks to lend to potential upside in the underlying major.

Previous: Consumer confidence rose better than expected in the month of January to a six month high reading of -3. With expectations of a -7 print, the improved number should be warmly accepted as it bounces from the doldrums of a -9 seen in the month of December. Attributed to the rise looks to be suggestions of stabilization in the housing sector as consumers grow increasingly confident in their purchases.

According to recent surveys, including Nationwide and RICS, housing prices have turned up recently from their bottom, rising for the seventh month running. As a result, retail sales increased for the fifth month in December while manufacturing has rebounded in time, indicative that personal consumption has returned if only momentarily.

This will ultimately contribute to current preemptive inflationary policy as central bankers continue to be aware of rising prices with a revitalization of domestic consumption. Adding to pound strength in the near term, market notions are looking for a stabilized 4.5 repurchase rate in the region.

Canadian GDP (MoM) (DEC) (13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST)


Consensus: 0.3%
Previous: 0.2%

Outlook: Gross Domestic Product growth in Canada is expected to have increased to a rate of 0.3% in December, supporting the likelihood that growth in the fourth quarter of last year will register at 2.6%. This will be the tenth consecutive quarter of GDP growth in the nation.

As in the previous month, December's economic expansion is most probably a result of strong consumer spending. While wholesale and manufacturing figures may suffer from high input prices, namely energy factors, sales at the retail level will be inflated from holiday exuberance.

However, the pattern of quarterly growth for the past two years in Canada may begin to slow in 2006. As the Bank of Canada continues to tighten rates, consumer enthusiasm may begin to decrease. Consumer participation may also start to dawdle from its current pace as Canadian citizens begin to feel the effects of an entire year of crippling petroleum prices.

Previous: The Canadian economy expanded at a rate of 0.2% in November 2005 in reflection of a pattern of heavy consumption. Over the month, retail sales increased by 1.3%. Much of this gain in spending resulted from the purchasing of automobiles, which have been incredibly popular among Canadian consumers well after auto manufacturers ceased to offer attractive discounts earlier in the year.

Also contributing to the monthly expansion in GDP was a rise in construction activity of 0.7%.
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