DailyFX Weekly Range Breakout Barometer

EURUSD
The euro spread differential rose higher above the top barrier over the course of the week, offering continued suggestions of a range bound environment in the underlying spot. However, attributed to the short term gain was merely a plunge in actuals as implieds continued relatively unchanged from last week's measure. Now, with actuals slightly below the implied vol, the overall spread climbs to the second spot on the weekly moves against the majors. Coincidentally, with major resistance up ahead of the current rise, it's not too hard to believe in a probable downturn, sparking a test of the lower channel support. Traders should be wary, nonetheless, to watch a dip back below the upper barrier before initiating on such a suggestion.

GBPUSD
Volatilities kept relatively unchanged for the week in pound sterling with the differential only ticking higher incrementally. Now, rising to test the upper barrier, it seems as though the vols spread intends to dip lower for the upcoming week keeping the suggestion rather neutral and rangebound at the moment. Notably, this would reinforce the current resistance ceiling at the 1.7900 handle, becoming a barrier for the underlying spot heading into the weekend. Subsequently, two reports may add to some upside in implieds and an eventual and confirmed test of the topside barrier. Nationwide prices, although rising previously, is expected to decline slightly which may spark rate cut sellers to surface. Otherwise, most of the week's event risk will be placed on the GfK consumer survey.

USDJPY
Japanese yen vols shifted significantly over the week. With implieds rising the second highest of all the majors, while actual volatility dropped through the floor. The decline in actuals was so precipitous that the spread now looks ready for another breakout scenario following the event risk following the G7 meeting this past weekend. Briefly touching the lower barrier, this week's ending data could give enough of a boost to implieds to complete the suggestion. Subsequently, with actuals now above the implied measure, the spread has turned negative.

USDCHF
Following in fine euro style, Swissie implieds kept steady while actuals dipped over the course of the week. However, at this point, actuals continue to hover above implieds suggesting some short term stalling before further activity is spurred. With some of the U.S. economic data out of the way, further event risk is apparent before the weekend with the gross domestic product report and Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke's testimony to Congress later this week. Both are surely to add to current volatility causing a test of the upper barrier and further ranging conditions.

USDCAD
Canadian actuals dropped on the week, posting the lowest running figure of all the majors. Now with actuals completely being overshadowed by implieds, further short term action may be in the running for the underlying spot. The difference is considerable as the current spread, rising over two full percentage higher is keeping the spread positive, a rarity among the handful of majors. Further upside potential can be expected as we head into Friday's release of the region's gross domestic product report.

AUDUSD
In an interesting move, actuals soared considerably over the previous week's print pushing the overall spread further into negative territory and below the lower band. Following some visual consolidation over the past couple of sessions, vols plummeted with implieds staging mild resistance, rising only incrementally. Coincidentally, the move was considerable enough to post the highest shifts of all the majors and consequently the widest spread. As a result, a breakout scenario looks probable as the current price action tests upper historic resistance.