Kuwait: Political, not economic, reform

Kuwait held early parliamentary elections on 29th June. This was a critical election for the government, which aimed to strengthen its authority over an increasingly emboldened parliament. The new emir, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah, dissolved parliament a year before the end of its four-year term in order to end a crisis between the government and the legislature over electoral reform.

The bitter dispute broke out over the issue of cutting the number of constituencies. Opposition members of parliament (MPs) have been calling for fewer constituencies with the view that this will reduce the influence of patronage and thereby prevent electoral corruption. Furthermore, opposition MPs took the unprecedented step of seeking to question Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser Mohammed al-Ahmed over the disputed electoral bill.

Consequently, electoral reform dominated pre-election campaigning with candidates from different groupings (liberals, Islamists, independents, etc.) running on a common agenda. The dissolution of parliament resulted in the different groups setting aside their deep differences on education, social policy and economic liberalisation to unite in a coalition, the Alliance for Change, and campaign for electoral reform. The call for transparency and reform also led to the revival of political interest amongst younger Kuwaitis and resulted in a strong voter turnout of 65.5%, including women who voted for the first time.

Although the government aimed to strengthen its position with the election, the reverse has happened with the opposition increasing the number of seats they hold. Negatively, as a result, the fractured and difficult relationship between the government and legislature is forecast to intensify. The broad alliance of opposition MPs won 33 seats of the 50 contested seats, compared to 29 in the previous parliament. In total there are 65 seats, as 15 cabinet members are allowed to vote in parliament. Nevertheless, parliament is now controlled by candidates who campaigned publicly for electoral reform. Islamists increased their presence from 18 seats in the previous parliament to 21, while the number of pro-government deputies fell from 19 to 13. Meanwhile, none of the women candidates won a seat, despite women making up 57% of the eligible voters.

The strong showing of the opposition will mean the government will be under pressure on a number of issues, especially on the political reform front. There could be early confrontation between legislators and the emir over the formation of the new government. In keeping with tradition, the emir accepted the resignation of his cabinet following the election, in order to allow the formation of a new government. Sheikh Nasser has been reappointed as prime minister and has been asked to form a new cabinet.

With a larger opposition in the new parliament that ran on a platform of reforming the electoral bill and fighting corruption, the ruler of Kuwait now needs to shape a new government that excludes ministers accused of corruption and inefficiency, in order to avoid a stalemate between parliament and the new government. MPs have threatened to censure certain ministers if the emir reappoints them. Following the formation of the new government, parliament will push for electoral reform, namely reducing the number of electoral districts from 25 to 5, and increasing democracy.

While the tactical allegiances between the different opposition groups are likely to hold on the political reform front, their ideologies and cohesion will be weaker on the economic front.

Nevertheless, we do not forecast an improvement in this area and the government is likely to continue to face difficulties on passing measures given the strong showing of Islamists who have historically opposed economic reform measures. Specifically, key legislation such as 'Project Kuwait', which aims to increase oil production from the northern fields by opening the upstream oil sector to foreign participation, will be delayed until the end of the year owing to the summer recess and then as parliament focuses on political issues. Generally, parliament will continue to remain deeply suspicious of measures which could lead to Kuwaitis losing their jobs or see increasing foreign involvement in the economy (such as privatisation, tax reform and Project Kuwait).

Overall, the election result strengthens the momentum towards political reform, but further undermines government attempts to push through with economic reforms.