Despite China's Warning of a Speedy Exit out of US Dollars, Strong Data Erases Losses (page 2 of 2)

If you recall, it was also the World Cup that sent business sentiment to a 15 year high last month. Meanwhile despite the Euro's retracement, economic data released today was mixed.

French business confidence increased from 107 to 109 in the month of July while preliminary German consumer prices increased 0.4 percent this month. However Italian business confidence dropped from a downwardly revised 98.3 to 96.7. The Eurozone current account balance also deteriorated from a surplus of 0.9 billion to a deficit of 8.2 billion.

Over in Switzerland, economic data continues to outperform its neighbors. The UBS consumption indicator jumped to a 5 year high of 2.111, which is indicative of strong consumer spending in the second quarter.

British Pound

With no economic data released over the past two days, the British pound continued to lose value on the back of the recovery in the US dollar. Tomorrow may be a bit different however as the tables turn slightly.

Aside from the US Beige Book report due much later in the afternoon, there is nothing else on the US economic calendar. The UK on the other hand is scheduled to release the CBI industrial trends survey, which is forecasted to improve from -12 to -10. A stronger report could help the GBP/USD recover somewhat in the early hours of trading. Aside from the CBI report, it should be extremely quiet in the UK as there is no other economic data scheduled for release until next week.

Japanese Yen

Like the British pound, there was no Japanese economic data released overnight which explains today's quiet trading in the Japanese Yen. This has allowed news from China to continue to yield its influence on the Yen. Although dollar strength has sent USD/JPY above 117, the Yen held steady against the Euro, British pound and Swiss Franc.

Another revaluation announcement by China will certainly tip the scales more in the Yen's favor, but for the time being, Yen crosses remained trapped in a relatively tight trading range. Tonight we are expecting the Japanese Trade Balance for the month of June. The surplus is predicted to balloon from Y382 billion to Y833 billion, but the recent rise in oil prices poses a risk to the lofty forecasts.

In addition to that, traders will also be paying attention to comments from Bank of Japan policy member Suda tomorrow for clues on when the Bank of Japan could deliver its second interest rate hike. We still expect another rate hike to be delayed for at least two months on the central bank's desires to contain expectations.