The West's loss could be the Middle East's gain

For British people wanting to leave the country in the next few months and catch a bit of sun as autumn kicks in, such scenes could act as a major deterrent. The stringent new rulings on hand luggage, coupled with the usual jitteriness that always follows a terrorist attack or a major incident, could cause a dip in bookings for transatlantic breaks and, more generally, for holidays that require air travel.

The numbers game

After the attacks in the US in September 2001, Americans reacted by choosing to curtail their holidays to farther flung destinations. In 2000, a record 13 million US tourists visited Europe but, after the attacks, numbers plummeted and only now, several years later, are they getting close to that level once again.

The Middle East and North Africa has seen regular terrorist atrocities over the past decade and much of the region is treated with a degree of caution by western holidaymakers. After the foiled London plot and its unfortunate link to Islamic extremists, one might think that the tourism industry in Arab nations must be set to take another hit.

But, despite several high profile attacks that dominated newspaper headlines, Egypt played host to more than 8.5 million tourists last year, while Jordan enjoyed a 4.1 per cent increase in its number of visitors, receiving nearly 6 million holidaymakers, despite the horrific Amman bomb blasts in the late autumn. A United Nations survey published earlier this month revealed that Lebanon, so often the scene of violence in recent history, had enjoyed a staggering 37 per cent growth rate in its tourism industry in the first quarter of the year and prior to the start of Israel's devastating military assault on the country in July.

Regional factors

The answer to why the tourism industry remains bullish in these nations, despite the incidents they have faced, won't be found simply at the check-in desks at major European and American airports, but in the fact that local tourists from within the Middle East region are making a significant impact.

Almost two thirds of Jordan's visitors last year were other Arabs, while in the first half of this year, despite further suicide bombings at Red Sea resorts, Egypt saw a 15 per cent increase in its number of intra-regional visitors.

Indeed, United Nations World Tourism Organisation figures show that while the number of tourist arrivals worldwide has grown at a rate of 4 per cent over the past decade, in the Middle East region, the growth rate has been 11 per cent, making it the world's fastest growing region for tourism. The localised tourism market within the Arab world has been the cornerstone of this development.

Racial profiling

In the wake of the UK bomb plot, it has emerged that a number of western countries are considering the racial profiling of passengers as a means of identifying possible security risks. This is bad news for Arab tourists, and Muslims generally, who would no doubt face the closest scrutiny when travelling to the West.

No tourist, when embarking on their holiday, wants to face the prospect of interrogation, possible body and luggage searches and the over-riding sensation of being under a cloud of suspicion. In the past few weeks alone, there have been instances of innocent Arab travellers being apprehended and incarcerated for no good reason and others being ejected from flights for speaking in Arabic.

Incidents such as these, and the fear of them, will persuade Arab tourists to holiday in places where they feel more comfortable. This will have the effect of boosting even further the numbers visiting countries within the Middle East, as more intra-regional tourism takes place.

GCC countries spend around $12 billion a year on international tourism, with Saudi Arabians alone putting $6.7 billion towards overseas travel. If racial profiling becomes a norm, then western holiday destinations like London and Paris could find themselves losing out to the likes of Cairo and Dubai.