Egyptians' confidence in economy declines nine points in Q4 2012, Nielsen survey reveals

Across the 58 countries Nielsen measured in Q4 2012, confidence declined in 33 countries, remained flat in six countries, and increased in 19 countries, compared to the prior quarter.

Consumer confidence in the economy among Egyptian online consumers dropped nine points from Q3 2011 to reach 94 - almost reaching the lows seen in the last quarter of 2011.

"The last 2 years were seesaw years when emotions and consumer sentiments in Egypt went up and down in reaction to the fast-changing political and economic land-scape," said Ram Mohan Rao, managing director, Nielsen Egypt. "Consumer confidence improved in the first half of 2012, but dropped in the last quarter- an indication of how consumers are interpreting the current economic climate and the tough economic steps the government is contemplating to implement. If people do not see any quick improvement in the economy then it is possible that in the short term consumer confidence will continue to slide."

The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, established in 2005, measures consumer confidence, major concerns, and spending intentions among more than 29,000 respondents with Internet access in 58 countries. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism. In the latest round of the survey, conducted between November 10 and November 27, 2012, consumer confidence rose in one-third (33%) of global markets measured by Nielsen, compared to a 52% increase in the previous quarter.

Recessionary Mindset Prevails; Economic Concerns Still Lead

86% of online consumers in Egypt said they were in a recession in Q4, a 6% increase from last quarter while more people are less confident that we'll be out of this recession within a year, whereas 27% say we will not be out of the recession within a year. Egypt is the second country on the top 10 global scale to be hopeful that the country will be out of the recession with a year (43%) despite the 12% decline witnessed since last quarter. 31% are not clear about when we will get out of this recession.

While Egyptian respondents' concerns about the economy increased 5% over last quarter to reach 36%, Egypt comes as the 6th country on the top 10 global countries to have this concern. Political stability is the second concern that worries Egyptians (29%) with a 2% increase than last quarter, yet Egyptians are the most concerned nation about political stability across the world. Concerns about crime (12%), terrorism (12%) and war (10%) are still found higher than pre-revolution times and places Egypt in the list of the top 10 countries that worry about these concerns. Egypt is also listed as the 9th country in the top 10 list that cares about parents' welfare and happiness (12%).

Outlook on Job Prospects, Personal Finances Steady; Consumers Spent, Saved Less

Half of Egyptian online consumers (50%) find local job prospects to be excellent/good with a 9% decrease than last quarter while 45% find it bad witnessing an increase of 11% since last quarter. Confidence in personal finances was 57%, with a drop of 7% from the previous quarter. 64% of Egyptian respondents said it was not a good time to buy things wanted and needed over the next 12 months, marking a 7% increase than Q3 2012.

Discretionary saving and spending patterns reported declines across most lifestyle areas. Putting spare cash into savings remained a priority among 35% of Egyptian online respondents, but declined two percentage points from Q3. Spending on new clothes declined four points to 31%. Intentions on out of home entertainment spending witnessed an increase of 2 points since last quarter to reach 26%. Buying new technology products (17%) dropped 2 points than Q3. Paying off loans saving for retirement fund increased one point to 11%, compared to Q3. Spending intentions for holidays/vacations fell four percentage points to 12%, while 20% say they have no spare cash (20%) recording two percentage points increase than Q3.

Regional Roundup

Asia-Pacific (101) and Latin America (96) reported the only quarterly consumer confidence increases, up one and two index points, respectively, compared to Q3. Middle East/Africa declined two points to 96, North America dropped one point to 90, and Europe decreased three index points to 71.

In key economies, confidence fell by one point in the United States (89), increased two points in China (108), increased one point in Germany (87) and remained flat in Japan (59). India reported the highest index at 121, a two-point increase over Q3. Greece reported the lowest index at 35, an 11-point decline from last quarter. Only 10 of the 58 countries in the survey reported a confidence index above the baseline level of 100.

North America posted the most significant decline in recessionary mindset, down 15 points from Q4 2011 to 71% in Q4 2012.

Consumer confidence fell in 20 of 29 European markets, and 10 posted a confidence decline of six points or more since Q3. The biggest European decline was reported in Belgium, down 14 points from last quarter to 74. Europeans' outlook for personal finances, job prospects and immediate spending intentions all declined last quarter.

Confidence fell in eight of 14 Asia-Pacific markets in Q4 compared to Q3 2012, with four-point declines in Hong Kong and Taiwan, but the region reported the highest consumer confidence scores overall. India topped the global list with an index of 121, an increase of two points from last quarter, followed by the Philippines with an increase of one point to 119 and Indonesia, which declined two points to a score of 117. China increased two index points to a score of 108, while Thailand (115) and Malaysia (103) also scored above the baseline of 100.

Consumer confidence fell in four of six Middle East/Africa markets, compared to Q3. While United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia both declined by one index point each in Q4, their confidence scores of 113 and 112, respectively, are still among the highest reported of 58 countries and above the baseline of 100.