Editorial Column

Your chairman's letter: be realistic about 2007
It is always useful to provide a brief snapshot of the outlook for Middle East business prior to the start of the New Year. Of course, this very much depends on where you are based: Baghdad or Dubai face different issues for 2007. But there are enough general themes worth considering.
United Arab Emirates: Sunday, December 17 - 2006 at 11:38 |

Are we back to the early 1980s? Let us hope not!
Standard Chartered Bank last week published a research bulletin asking what would happen to the regional economy if oil prices crashed instead of dropping slightly as per its own forecast. The bank published a sobering table of GDP slumps in the early 1980s after the last oil boom ended.
United Arab Emirates: Sunday, December 10 - 2006 at 11:30 |

Can Middle East insecurity offset the impact of a US slowdown on the oil price?
With the US dollar under pressure last week, and evidence of a US slowdown or recession mounting by the day, how can oil producers remain optimistic about the outlook? Simple: you only have to consider the likely impact of three pending civil wars on regional stability and oil prices could still spike higher.
Saudi Arabia: Sunday, December 03 - 2006 at 11:05 |

Chinese investment slump threatens oil prices
Chinese investment flows are slowing down which could spell the end of the current investment cycle, and signal a recession ahead. Given the importance of emerging markets like China in sustaining oil price growth in recent years this is unwelcome news on top of the continuing crisis in US housing.
Saudi Arabia: Saturday, November 25 - 2006 at 10:14 |

Arabian stock markets are signaling a real estate crash
The linkage between stock market and real estate cycles is well established, and in advanced markets a stock market crash will typically be followed by a real estate crunch one to three years later. Dr. Marc Faber's research of emerging markets points to a 12-18 month gap between the peaking of share prices and the start of a fall in property prices.
United Arab Emirates: Sunday, November 19 - 2006 at 08:13 |

Is this the future of private equity in the Middle East?
Millennium Private Equity has launched two $1 billion private equity funds and plans a total of seven to raise $5 billion. This takes regional private equity to a new scale. But are there really sufficient opportunities here at global standards of corporate governance for this type of investment to work?
United Arab Emirates: Tuesday, November 14 - 2006 at 13:49 |

Just what are Arabian stock markets saying about the future?
The continued crashing of Arabian stock markets comes at a time when Western bourses are riding high. Yet the oil revenues of the Arab Oil States have never been higher, while Western economies are feeling an oil price squeeze. Surely then Arab stock markets ought to be high and Western markets lower?
Saudi Arabia: Tuesday, November 07 - 2006 at 09:05 |

Buying IPOs in crashing markets is against commonsense!
In the first nine months of 2006 a record $6.2 billion was raised by 17 initial public offerings in the GCC and an amazing 134 Gulf companies are reportedly getting ready to go public. Perhaps the sellers think now is the time to cash in with price-to-earnings multiples around 25. But should anyone be buying IPOs at a time when Arabian stock markets have just suffered huge crashes?
Saudi Arabia: Sunday, October 29 - 2006 at 10:38 |