SCB Economic Update

Dubai Property: The brow of the hill
Concerns about property bubbles abound around the world. Dubai is no exception. In recent years, we have seen a dramatic price appreciation. By the end of 2005, we estimate that property prices had doubled in the previous 3 years. Standard Chartered's property price index shows that property prices have risen 18.8% so far this year. We expect the peak to be seen in the first half of 2007.
United Arab Emirates: Monday, November 06 - 2006 at 08:36 |

Lebanon: Rebuilding all over again
1) The ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel remains fragile and a key area of risk going forward. 2) A v-shaped recovery is forecast in 2007, security situation willing. 3) Generous donor support is vital to manage the already precarious debt outlook.
Sunday, September 17 - 2006 at 13:36 |

Structural problems dampen Algeria's oil bonanza
1) Algeria has repaid nearly 90% of its Paris Club debt ahead of schedule. 2) Strong FX reserves and an improving economy have benefited the currency market. 3) Hydrocarbons dominate. Diversifying the economy will be key to long term growth (by Abah Ofon)
Sunday, September 17 - 2006 at 13:27 |

Dissecting Inflation
Inflationary pressures in the GCC have been increasing. To gain a better understanding of the recent increases in inflation levels, we conducted a survey amongst Standard Chartered Bank staff in the Middle East region in August 2006. The main aim was to investigate price increases and the factors affecting inflation. Our results indicate there are three main factors affecting inflationary pressure in the GCC: 1) rent increases in certain countries; 2) high liquidity in the region; and 3) the weakening of the US dollar against other major currencies. Furthermore, there are indications that inflation is being underestimated in Qatar and UAE.
Sunday, September 17 - 2006 at 13:13 |

Afghanistan: The long road ahead
1) The economy is performing well in the backdrop of significant reforms. 2) However, there remains a lot of work to do to wean the economy off foreign aid. 3) Key is the ability to halt the re-emergence of the Taliban as a political force.
Afghanistan: Thursday, August 03 - 2006 at 11:25 |

Are you really hedged?
GCC currency pegs are increasingly coming under scrutiny. This has significant implications for those companies hedging local currency interest rate exposures. Here we quantify the risks that companies are currently taking.
Thursday, August 03 - 2006 at 11:23 |

Oman: Hydrocarbon sector to drive growth
1) Economic performance to remain robust. 2) The outlook will be supported by increased LNG exports. 3) Government policy is supporting the diversification program.
Thursday, August 03 - 2006 at 10:57 |

Bahrain: Political developments to dominate
1) Government spending will remain expansionary. 2) Reducing social pressure will remain a key aim of the government. 3) Political tensions likely to increase ahead of parliamentary elections.
Thursday, August 03 - 2006 at 10:55 |