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Market bullish on Bitcoin, but future prices hinge on 1 key issue

Bitcoin (BTC) will be in a month-long win-streak if it finishes above the $7300 mark this week.

BTC soared to an all-time high to $20,000 in December 2017.

With the market showing bullish signs, it looks like the upward trajectory will continue.

Over this period, Bitcoin has added as much as 26% from its August 14 low, with a volume holding up in the $4 to $5 billion range, while Cryptos all together top $240 bn in market cap, up 1.4% over the last 24hrs.

However, only the upcoming months, from September to November, will tell whether the forecast will a rise towards greater highs or bottom lows.

Related: 1 reason why Bitcoin will swing hard 9 times the next 2 months

Bull sightings

The list of indicators signaling a long-term bullish reversal in bitcoin (BTC) continues to grow with each passing week.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram, one of the most popular technical indicators used to determine the trend reversal and momentum, has moved above zero, turning bullish – for the first time since January 2018, according to coindesk.

“BTC could explore the upside towards the July highs above $8,500 in the next few weeks,” said coindesk.

“(but) While the long-term picture is looking rosy, the cryptocurrency could drop to $7,000 (psychological support) in the next day or two.”

According to Bitcoinist, BTC, after a nearly 27% gain over the past two weeks, cooling off and consolidation are expected, adding “..there is a range of other positive signs which show BTC is well situated at the moment.”

Read: 11 Bitcoin and Crypto apps that make you virtual winners

BTC performance

BTC today trades at $7,362 at publishing time, rising 2.2% in 24 hours, and 5% since Friday’s close, nearing its highest price since August 4.

One analyst told Market Watch that investors should temper their excitement as the overall trend is still intact. “I can’t look away from the broader trend,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda. “We are seeing these intermittent rallies but the broader movement is extremely consistent like the move to $8,500 , which didn’t last long.”

According to CryptoCoinNews (CCN), “Since Sunday, the cryptocurrency market has not seen any major movement to both the upside and downside, possibly due to the lack of momentum and volume in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major cryptocurrencies to initiate a strong mid-term rally.”

“Based on the simple trend Bitcoin has recorded since January, the solid short-term recovery of BTC from the $6,000 mark to the $7,200+ resistance level should be sufficient to lead BTC to test major resistance levels at $7,500 and $8,000,” said CCN.

“In previous recoveries from the $6,000 mark, Bitcoin price has climbed to the range of $8,000 to $10,000 relatively quickly. Since early August, BTC has initiated a slow rebound from the $6,000 mark to $7,300, without significant spikes on the upside.”

CCN said that if in the upcoming 24 to 48 hrs, if Bitcoin price can break out of the $7,500 resistance level, it may potentially eye a movement to $8,000.

“I believe that will hit $10,000 by the first week of November,” Hermann Finnbjörnsson, founder and chief executive of bitcoin and cryptocurrency advisory firm Svandis told The Street, an industry site. “There’s less than a 1% chance in my mind that Bitcoin won’t succeed.”

However, only key developments in the near future will pave the path forward for BTC prices.

Related: The next price is anyone’s guess but are they here to stay?

It will only take a SEC

The U.S. Security and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision later this month on whether to grant approval for a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), which it had previously rejected due to fears around BTC’s price swings and price manipulation, will be key, according to Forbes.

It said the BTC price has been waiting for firmer news on investment and regulation over recent months.

However, a few influencers in the BTC and cryptocurrency world have argued an ETF will be bad for the major crypto in the long term, according to Coindesk.

BTC evangelist Andreas Antonopoulos, for example, warned that he expects an ETF approval will be issued by the SEC.

“But I think it is a terrible idea. I’m actually against ETFs. I think a Bitcoin ETF is going to be damaging to the ecosystem.

So far this year, the SEC has rejected a fund proposed by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, postponed a conclusion on whether to greenlight VanEck and Solid X’s proposed ETF and slapped down several bitcoin ETF proposals, according to CNBC.

“Advocates of cryptocurrencies believe that institutional interest in the space is a vital step toward transforming it into a mainstream industry trusted by both big banks and consumers.”

Read: The arrival of blockchain and crypto explained: The legal case for UAE

ICE built up

In July, New York Stock Exchange’s parent company, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) revealed that it was launching a bitcoin and cryptocurrency platform called Bakkt in partnership with coffee chain Starbucks, software giant Microsoft, and Boston Consulting Group.

ICE also plans to roll out a bitcoin ETF on November 5, reported Forbes.

“An ETF will be launched under Bakkt, which will also facilitate a scalable ecosystem for federally regulated markets and warehousing.”

Bakkt CEO Kelly Loeffler said in a blog post “Our new daily bitcoin contract will not be traded on margin, use leverage, or serve to create a paper claim on a real asset.”

“This supports market integrity and differentiates our effort from existing futures and crypto exchanges which allow for margin, leverage and cash settlement.”

ICE’s strong credentials in capital market trade give BTC a boost should it be the catalyst through which BTC ETFs are legalized.