The Bitcoin block halving event is scheduled to take place on May 12, 2020.
The Bitcoin (BTC) mining reward to miners will be slashed by half from the current 12.5 BTC every 10 minutes. When a major event like that happens, where BTC supply from miners to the market gets halved, the only thing that could happen is that supply/demand dynamics will kick in: less supply, more demand and the price will go up.
The question is by how much and for how long?
Some experts are trying to explain that, and the numbers are phenomenal.
Plan B, the controversial analyst who first applied the stock-to-flow (S2F) ratio (how scarcity of an asset affects its price) to Bitcoin (BTC) is updating his forecast for the leading cryptocurrency.
He expects the upcoming halving event in May will trigger a substantial rise in the price over the next one to two years.
“[The] 2020 halving will be like 2012 and 2016. As per S2F model, I expect 10x price (order of magnitude, not precise), 1-2 years after the halving. $55k was the original model based on btc market cap. Later models, with newer data and other lost coin adjustment or yearly instead of monthly data, had different values, $70-100k.”
COVID-19 could be in the way of reaching those levels.
PlanB recently polled his 87,000 followers on Twitter, asking what they believe is the biggest risk to Bitcoin over the next year. The vast majority say it’s the economic aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic.
Let’s try BTC at $300,000
Billionaire business magnate Warren Buffett’s Books’ founder Preston Pysh believes that the price of Bitcoin could rocket all the way to $300,000 after the halving. In a recent interview with podcast host Nathan Latka, he said:
“I would tell you that I think the next orbit level is $80,000 to $100,000. […] It’s gonna go straight through that number, and it’s probably gonna go to $200,000 or $300,000.”
At least a bull run
The report mentions a number of reasons that the Bitcoin market is maturing, and that it is due for a bull run. It also affirms that “Bitcoin is gaining relative fuel as stocks reset, if history is a guide”.
Bloomberg says that Bitcoin and gold, both considered hedge assets, are expected to win the most from the recent COVID-19 induced market turmoil.
“Bitcoin and gold also stand to be primary beneficiaries of the unprecedented monetary stimulus that’s accompanied by a mean-reverting stock market.”
It also observes that Bitcoin’s correlation to gold “has increased to all-time highs”, concluding:
“This year will confirm Bitcoin’s transition from a risk-on speculative asset to the crypto market’s version of gold.”
The report reiterates that 2020 will be the year when Bitcoin becomes digital gold:
“This year marks a key test for Bitcoin’s transition toward a quasi-currency like gold, and we expect it to pass” and thus volatility to decrease from current erratic behavior.