Complex Made Simple

Trump vs Oil: What the future holds

* “Oil is doomed”: OPEC source

* “This will have huge negative implications for Asia”: Think tank

* Trump’s statements will be seen as supportive of share prices of US independent oil and gas producers


OPEC sources said they expected oil to remain weak in the days and weeks ahead due to worries about the global economy and uncertainty about Trump’s policies for the Middle East.

“Oil is doomed,” one of the sources said.

A second source said the OPEC meeting in November might fail to have a strong impact on prices even if it strikes a deal to limit output: “I don’t think prices will go up much more than the current levels.”

Trump has promised to double US economic growth but also pledged protectionist trade policies.

“This will have huge negative implications for Asia, given how much their GDP is tied to trade with the US Hence it is negative for growth and oil demand, at least due to the uncertainty that Trump creates,” said Amrita Sen, of the think tank Energy Aspects.

Trump’s energy policies have been limited in detail so far.

Read: Donald Trump wins US elections 2016: What it means for MENA


Making America great?

But what he has said will be seen as supportive for the share prices of US independent oil and gas producers as well as oil majors with large exposure to the US shale industry such as Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell.

“Trump has vowed to lead a fossil-fuel revival to underpin job growth and has also put man-made climate change denial at the forefront of his energy policy,” JBC Energy analysts said in a note.

Trump said he was in favour of removing oil-sector regulations, opening federal land to drilling, and vowed to revive a major trans-Canadian and trans-US oil pipeline project while pledging to support the coal industry.


Read: Here’s what the Middle East thinks of Trump


Trump has criticised the West’s nuclear deal with Iran, adding to uncertainty and frustrating Tehran’s push for foreign investment to revive its economy.

An executive from an oil major negotiating with Iran said that given Tehran wanted to repay investments slowly, maybe over five to ten years, many oil firms would take a slow approach in finalising deals until Trump’s policies became clearer.

“It is a significant amount of money that will be put at risk should sanctions be brought back,” the executive said.


Read: President Donald Trump: Middle East leaders react