Complex Made Simple

UAE banking pulse Q3 2018: Deposits outgrew loans and advances

 Leading global professional services firm Alvarez & Marsal (A&M) today released its latest UAE Banking Pulse for Q3 2018. The report shows that liquidity remained stable, but profitability decreased slightly as a result of the increased cost of funds.

Alvarez & Marsal’s UAE Banking Pulse compares the data of the 10 largest listed banks in the UAE, looking at the third quarter of 2018 (Q3 2018) against the previous quarter (Q2 2018).

The prevailing trends identified for Q3 2018 were as follows:

1- Deposits continued to grow faster (3.19%) than loans & advances (L&A) (2.06%), further extending the decrease in loan-to-deposit (LDR) ratio for Q3 2018, continuing the trend from the previous quarter. That said, eight of the top 10 banks remained in the LDR “green zone” of between 80% and 100%. Five of the top banks grew their L&A and deposit market share, while only two banks lost L&A and deposits market share.

Read: Bloomberg publishes 2018 EMEA Capital Markets League tables

2- Operating income remained steady in Q3 2018, driven by mixed results in interest and non-interest income. Interest income continued to increase (by 1.5%) whilst non-interest income saw a further decline (by 3.1%), resulting in an overall deceleration in income growth.

3- Net interest margin (NIM) compressed by three basis points (bps), reversing the increase seen in Q2 2018. The compression was driven by a ~20 bps uptick in cost of funds, despite a rise in yield on credit, which grew by ~25 bps when compared to the previous quarter.

4- Cost-to-Income (C/I) ratio retained previous quarter levels (33.1%), with income and expenses steady.

5- Cost of risk saw a slight reduction of ~2 bps (from 0.76% in Q2 2018 to 0.74% in Q3 2018), driven by a slight decrease in loss provisions and a slight increase in gross loans.

6- Return on equity (RoE) decreased overall by ~ 68 bps, with two banks showing a large decrease of ~ 310 bps and ~ 270 bps respectively, and three banks managing to increase their RoE. The slight overall decline was driven by a higher cost of funds and lower non-interest income.

Alvarez & Marsal’s report uses independently-sourced published market data and 16 different metrics to assess the banks’ key performance areas including size, liquidity, income, operating efficiency, risk, profitability, and capital.

The country’s 10 largest listed banks analysed in A&M’s UAE Banking Pulse are First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), Emirates NBD (ENBD), Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB), Dubai Islamic Bank (DIB), Mashreq Bank (Mashreq), Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB), Union National Bank (UNB), Commercial Bank of Dubai (CBD), National Bank of Ras Al-Khaimah (RAK) and the National Bank of Fujairah (NBF).

Expert: Is it time to buy British pound for a 1.45 target?


The table below sets out the key metrics:

Note: Difference in previously reported numbers due to revision in methodology and use of audited numbers

Source: Financial statements, investor presentations, A&M analysis

Read: What do 50% of UAE investors believe threatens their 2019 investments?

A&M Managing Director in the firm’s Strategic Performance Improvement Practice Dr. Saeeda Jaffar was the lead author of the report. It was co-authored by A&M Head of Financial Services Asad Ahmed and Neil Hayward, who specialize in turnaround and restructuring.

Dr. Saeeda Jaffar commented: “Comparing the third quarter of 2018 to Q2 shows that liquidity remained stable, whilst profitability and RoE saw a slight decrease, which we attribute to a higher cost of funds. In the coming months, we expect to see increasing M&A activity in the fragmented UAE banking sector, which makes good business sense aligned with creating regional champions. Banks are looking at consolidation in order to address a tightening market, as well as to provide scale, cost efficiencies and operating synergies. M&A activity is a core competency of our firm. We help clients operationalize M&A strategies by building internal capabilities, governance structures, processes and playbooks in support of their individual goals.”